1980 October Surprise theory

This article is about the specific 1980 events. For the general concept, see October surprise.

The 1980 October Surprise theory refers to an allegation that representatives of Ronald Reagan's presidential campaign made a secret deal with Iranian leaders to delay the release of American hostages until after the election between Reagan and President Jimmy Carter, the incumbent.[1] The detention of 66 Americans in Iran, held hostage since November 4, 1979, was one of the leading national issues during 1980,[2] and the alleged goal of the deal was to thwart Carter from pulling off an "October surprise".[3][4] Reagan won the election, and on the day of his inauguration—minutes after he concluded his 20-minute inaugural address—the Islamic Republic of Iran announced the release of the hostages.[5]

According to the allegation, on top of the Carter administration's agreement to unfreeze Iranian assets in U.S. banks in exchange for the release of the embassy hostages, the Reagan administration's practice of covertly supplying Iran with weapons via Israel likely originated as a further quid pro quo for having delayed the release until after Reagan's inauguration, setting a precedent for covert U.S.-Iran arms deals that would feature heavily in the subsequent Iran–Contra affair.

After 12 years of varying media attention, both houses of the United States Congress held separate inquiries and concluded that credible evidence supporting the allegation was absent or insufficient.[6][7] Nevertheless, several individuals—most notably, former Iranian President Abulhassan Banisadr,[8][9] former Lieutenant Governor of Texas Ben Barnes, former naval intelligence officer and U.S. National Security Council member Gary Sick,[10] and Barbara Honegger,[11] a former campaign staffer and White House analyst for Reagan and his successor, George H. W. Bush—have stood by the allegation.

  1. ^ Marcetic, Branko (March 26, 2023). "Once Dismissed as Absurd, Ronald Reagan's "October Surprise" Is Now Confirmed as True". Jacobin.
  2. ^ "Reagan-Carter Debate | Vanderbilt Television News Archive". tvnews.vanderbilt.edu. Archived from the original on April 15, 2016. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  3. ^ "October Surprise Task Force" 1993, p. 1: "The serious implications of the allegations-generally that members of the 1980 Reagan/Bush campaign met secretly with Iranian nationals to delay the release of American Embassy personnel then being held hostage in Iran-lent added importance to the debate."
  4. ^ Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate 1992, p. 1: "These allegations hold that Republican presidential campaign operatives and representatives of the Ayatollah Khomeini secretly agreed to delay the release of the American hostages held in Iran until after the November 1980 election, thereby assisting the defeat of incumbent President Jimmy Carter."
  5. ^ Weisman, Steven R. (January 21, 1981). "Reagan Takes Oath as 40th President; Promises an 'Era of National Renewal'—Minutes Later, 52 U.S. Hostages in Iran Fly to Freedom After 444-Day Ordeal". The New York Times. p. A1. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on August 29, 2019. Retrieved August 25, 2020.
  6. ^ Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate (November 19, 1992). The "October Surprise" allegations and the circumstances surrounding the release of the American hostages held in Iran. Washington, D.C.: United States Government Printing Office. p. 114. ISBN 0-16-039795-2. OCLC 28306929. S. Rpt. No. 102-125. Archived from the original on January 17, 2021. Retrieved August 19, 2019.
  7. ^ Task Force to Investigate Certain Allegations Concerning the Holding of American Hostages by Iran in 1980 (January 3, 1993). Joint report of the Task Force to Investigate Certain Allegations Concerning the Holding of American Hostages by Iran in 1980 ("October Surprise Task Force"). Washington, D.C.: United States Government Printing Office. pp. 7–11. hdl:2027/mdp.39015060776773. OCLC 27492534. H. Rept. No. 102-1102.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  8. ^ Cite error: The named reference archive3 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  9. ^ Neil A Lewis (May 7, 1991). "Bani-Sadr, in U.S., Renews Charges of 1980 Deal". The New York Times. Archived from the original on April 23, 2009. Retrieved July 31, 2009.
  10. ^ Cite error: The named reference archive2 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  11. ^ Honegger, Barbara (1989). October surprise. New York : Tudor Pub. Co. ISBN 978-0-944276-46-4 – via Internet Archive.