2018 LF16

2018 LF16
The best inclined orbit is currently completely outside Earth's orbit, with markers every 30 days of motion.
Discovery [1]
Discovered byPan-STARRS 1
Discovery siteHaleakala Obs.
Discovery date14 June 2018
Designations
2018 LF16
Mars crossing asteroid [1][2]
Orbital characteristics [2]
Epoch 15 June 2018 (JD 2458284.5)
Uncertainty parameter 0
Observation arc15 years
Aphelion1.968 AU
(on 2023-Sep-16)
Perihelion1.5673 AU
1.7679 AU
Eccentricity0.11347
2.35 yr (622 d)
10.87°
0° 22m 24.96s / day
Inclination21.903°
210.28°
2022-Jul-14[2]
306.89°
Earth MOID0.61 AU (91 million km)[2]
Physical characteristics
213 m[3]
400 m[4]
300-670 meters
19.75[1][2][4]

2018 LF16 is a small Mars crossing asteroid roughly 213 m (699 ft) in diameter. It was first observed by astronomers with the Pan-STARRS survey at Haleakala Observatory on 14 June 2018. It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 29 July 2021. With an observation arc of 15 years the orbit is very well known and it does not make any notable approaches to Earth.[2]

In November 2018, when the asteroid had an almost worthless observation arc of 1.8 days, news article headlines exaggerated[5] claims of 62 potentially dangerous Earth-orbit crossings in the next century but also reported NASA calculations indicating there was only a 1 in 30,000,000 chance of impact.[6] Additionally, 2018 LF16 was rated at 0 on the Torino Scale, meaning that the chance of impact was so low as to effectively be zero. The observation arc extended only 1.8 days,[3] leaving large uncertainties in its predicted motion,[7][8] causing 2018 LF16 to be considered a lost asteroid.[9]

Obsolete 2023 Virtual Impactor
Date JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)
2023-08-07 1.09977 AU (164.523 million km)[10] ± 142 km[10]

With an observation arc of 15 years, it is known that its orbit leaves it entirely outside of Earth's orbit, never coming closer than 0.61 AU (91 million km) to Earth (MOID).[2] On 7 August 2023 the asteroid will be roughly 1.1 AU (160 million km) from Earth with an uncertainty region of ±142 km.[10] It will reach aphelion (farthest point from the Sun) on 16 September 2023. It will pass 0.080 AU (12.0 million km) from Mars on 6 July 2027.[2]

  1. ^ a b c Cite error: The named reference MPC-object was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h Cite error: The named reference jpldata was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  3. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference sentry_object was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  4. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference ssa_summary was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  5. ^ Wehner, Mike (26 November 2018). "No, asteroid 2018 LF16 probably isn't going to hit the Earth". Boy Genius Report.
  6. ^ Kettley, Sebastian (25 November 2018). "NASA asteroid WARNING: 700-foot-wide space rock on 62 RISK trajectories with Earth by 2023". Express.co.uk. Retrieved 26 November 2018.
  7. ^ "MPC Ephemerides for Visible Risk-Listed Objects". www.hohmanntransfer.com. Archived from the original on 26 November 2018. Retrieved 26 November 2018.
  8. ^ Chamberlin, Alan. "JPL Small-Body Database Browser". ssd.jpl.nasa.gov. Retrieved 26 November 2018.
  9. ^ Cite error: The named reference neodys_risk_list was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  10. ^ a b c Cite error: The named reference Horizons2023 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).