Allan Lichtman

Allan Lichtman
Born
Allan Jay Lichtman

(1947-04-04) April 4, 1947 (age 77)
Brooklyn, New York, U.S.
Alma materBrandeis University (BA)
Harvard University (PhD)
Notable workThe Keys to the White House
Political partyDemocratic
SpouseKaryn Strickler
Children2
RelativesRonnie Lichtman (sister)

Allan Jay Lichtman (/ˈlɪktmən/; born April 4, 1947) is an American historian. He has taught at American University in Washington, D.C. since 1973.

Lichtman created the Keys to the White House model with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. The model uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election.[1] Using this model, Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of most U.S. presidential elections since 1984, with the exceptions of 2000, where he predicted an Al Gore victory and 2016, where he predicted a Donald Trump popular-vote victory.[2][3][4] Since 1990, Lichtman maintained that his model only pertained to the popular vote, but after the 2016 election, he revised his model to note it picked the Electoral College winner.

Lichtman ran for the U.S. Senate seat from Maryland in 2006 and finished sixth in the Democratic primary. In 2017, he published The Case for Impeachment, laying out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump.[5][6][7]

  1. ^ "The Keys to the White House", Madison Books, 1996, ISBN 1568330618
  2. ^ Stevenson, Peter W. (2016-09-23). "Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2024-06-16.
  3. ^ Allan J. Lichtman (Oct 2016). "The Keys to the White House" (PDF). Social Education. 80 (5): 256–258.
  4. ^ Edelman, Gilad (2024-10-16). "The Man Who's Sure That Harris Will Win". The Atlantic. Retrieved 2024-10-16.
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