Arbitrary inference

Arbitrary inference is a classic tenet of cognitive therapy created by Aaron T. Beck in 1979.[1] He defines the act of making an arbitrary inference as the process of drawing a conclusion without sufficient evidence, or without any evidence at all. In cases of depression, Beck found that individuals may be more prone to cognitive distortions, and make arbitrary inferences more often. These inferences could be general and/or in reference to the effectiveness of their medicine or treatment.[2] Arbitrary inference is one of numerous specific cognitive distortions identified by Beck that can be commonly presented in people with anxiety, depression, and psychological impairments.[3]

Arbitrary inferences tend to derive from emotional disturbances one experienced and gave a distorted meaning. Most of the time that distorted meaning involves blaming the self.[4] In the book Feeling Good: The New Mood Therapy David D. Burns, a student of Aaron T. Beck, discusses in more detail the cognitive distortions. Burns explains arbitrary inference or "jumping to conclusions" with two of the most common examples of arbitrary inference: "Mind Reading" and "The Fortune Teller Error". When "Mind Reading" in arbitrary inference, one will believe others are thinking negatively about them. When "Mind Reading," one is so convinced others are thinking negatively about them, they do not even bother confirming. This acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy when the person avoids or counterattacks the other person, and as a result creating a tension that would not exist had they not applied the inference. In "The Fortune Teller Error" one would imagine something bad happening, and suddenly they are convinced it will happen, despite the irrationality of it. Similarly to "Mind Reading" it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.[5]

According to Beck (1967), a person goes through life with detrimental schemas and pessimistic point of view, they reinforce their harmful thoughts. People's prior beliefs also tend to reinforce that way of thinking, like when they focus on information that is in alignment with their belief and disregard equally relevant facts that do not align with their schemas.[6] These schemas that dominate the cognitive processes consist of 1) Feeling inadequate and faulty, 2) Believing all actions and experiences will lead to failure, and 3) The future is discouraging. Over time, these thought processes become automatic. Without time to reflect on the cognitive process, one believes that their illogical reasoning to their conclusion is valid.[7] Attributing the negative and distorted meaning of an event results in latent schemas that are later activated by events and influence how information from the event is processed.[8] When a person creates an arbitrary inference it intervenes and is seen as effective response to the event.[9]

In a 2003 study attempting to understand cognitive processes like arbitrary inference on depression, researchers compared 42 patients with chronic depression, 27 patients with major depressive disorder (non-chronic), and 24 patients that had never been psychiatrically ill before. The study included the Attributional Style Questionnaire, a ruminative response style questionnaire, the Schema Questionnaire, and the Dysfunctional Attitude Scale. While studies showed that both of the depressed groups were significantly elevated in every cognitive measure compared to the control group, the depressed group scored higher in the attributional style.[10]

Moreover, Beck has also studied the relationships between cognitive distortions and idiosyncrasies, where the inferences made could be based more on one's own personality rather than on a depressive state of emotions.[11]  This research shows that while common in those with depression, inferences can be made in any number of cases.  The main issue covered, however, is how these can negatively affect someone's personal schema when coupled with the already negative emotions brought about by anxiety or depression.

Cognitive Therapy for Arbitrary Inference Aaron T. Becks approach to helping people with arbitrary inference is to ask them questions about the inference. Beck Leads the people to think about the rationality of the automatic thoughts that happen when one is using arbitrary inference as an explanation to an event.[12][13] By studying what people thought of themselves when they were depressed, Beck and his associates were able to develop this form of therapy to offer a change in self-opinion.  

Moreover, different approaches have also been taken in cognitive therapy for these inferences, such as Cognitive Bias Modification (CBM).[14] This involves modification of Beck's original theory on depression, coming up with positive views and feelings for situations, as opposed to negative ones.  The point of the study was to show that simply thinking positively about something allows one to correctly attribute a situation, rather than ‘arbitrarily’ drawing false conclusions.

  1. ^ Dattilo, Frank. "Relationships - ACT". Academy of Cognitive Therapy. Archived from the original on 2016-04-19.
  2. ^ Beck, Aaron T. (1979). Cognitive Therapy of Depression. Guilford Press. ISBN 9780898629194.
  3. ^ Engler, Barbara; Pomerantz, Andrew (2005). Personality Theories: An Introduction. Cengage Learning. ISBN 9780618496624.
  4. ^ Beck, Aaron; Greenberg, L. (6 December 2012). Cognitive Therapy in Treatment of Depression. Boston, MA. p. 156. ISBN 978-1-4613-2641-0.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link)
  5. ^ Burns, David D. (1980). Feeling Good: The New Mood Therapy. New York, NY: HarperCollins Publisher Inc. p. 36. ISBN 0380731762.
  6. ^ Stanovich, Keith E. (August 2013). "Myside Bias, Rational Thinking, and Intelligence". Current Directions in Psychological Science. 22 (4): 259–265. doi:10.1177/0963721413480174. S2CID 14505370.
  7. ^ Beck, Aaron T.; Alford, Brad A. (2009). Depression Causes and Treatment (Second ed.). Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press. ISBN 9780812219647.
  8. ^ Beck, Aaron T.; Greenberg, L. (1984). Cogntitive Therapy in Treatment of Depression. Boston, MA. p. 156. ISBN 978-1-4613-2641-0.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link)
  9. ^ Beck, Aaron T. (Fall 1997). "The Past and Future of Cognitive Therapy". The Journal of Psychotherapy. 4 (4): 276–278. PMC 3330473. PMID 9292441.
  10. ^ Riso, Lawrence P.; du toit, P. L.; Blandino, Jaime A.; Penna, Suzanne; Dacey; Sean; Duin, Jason S.; Pacoe, Elizabeth M.; Grant, Merida M.; Ulmer, Christi S. (2003). "Cognitive Aspects of Chronic Depression". Journal of Abnormal Psychology. 112 (1): 72–80. doi:10.1037/0021-843X.112.1.72. PMID 12653415.
  11. ^ BECK, AARON T. (1964-06-01). "Thinking and Depression". Archives of General Psychiatry. 10 (6): 561–71. doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1964.01720240015003. ISSN 0003-990X. PMID 14159256.
  12. ^ Beck, Aaron T.; Greenberg, Ruth L. (1984), "Cognitive Therapy in the Treatment of Depression", Foundations of Cognitive Therapy, Boston, MA: Springer US, pp. 155–178, doi:10.1007/978-1-4613-2641-0_7, ISBN 978-1-4612-9648-5
  13. ^ Henker, Fred O. (June 1982). "Feeling Good: The New Mood Therapy". Psychosomatics. 23 (6): 676–677. doi:10.1016/s0033-3182(82)73375-4. ISSN 0033-3182.
  14. ^ Lester, Kathryn J.; Mathews, Andrew; Davison, Phil S.; Burgess, Jennifer L.; Yiend, Jenny (September 2011). "Modifying cognitive errors promotes cognitive well being: A new approach to bias modification". Journal of Behavior Therapy and Experimental Psychiatry. 42 (3): 298–308. doi:10.1016/j.jbtep.2011.01.001. ISSN 0005-7916. PMID 21352718.