Backcasting

Futures studies
Concepts
Techniques
Technology assessment and forecasting
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Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present.[1] The fundamentals of the method were outlined by John B. Robinson from the University of Waterloo in 1990.[2] The fundamental question of backcasting asks: "if we want to attain a certain goal, what actions must be taken to get there?"[3][4]

While forecasting involves predicting the future based on current trend analysis, backcasting approaches the challenge of discussing the future from the opposite direction; it is "a method in which the future desired conditions are envisioned and steps are then defined to attain those conditions, rather than taking steps that are merely a continuation of present methods extrapolated into the future".[5]

In statistics and data analysis, backcasting can be considered to be the opposite of forecasting; thus:

  • forecasting involves the prediction of the future (unknown) values of the dependent variables based on known values of the independent variable.
  • backcasting involves the prediction of the unknown values of the independent variables that might have existed, in order to explain the known values of the dependent variable.[6]
  1. ^ Page 12. The Soft Path for Water in a Nutshell (2005). Oliver M Brandes and David B. Brooks. A joint publication of Friends of the Earth Canada and the POLIS Project on Ecological Governance. University of Victoria, Victoria BC.
  2. ^ Robinson, John B. 1990. Futures under glass: a recipe for people who hate to predict Futures, vol. 22, issue 8, pp. 820–842.
  3. ^ Tinker, J. 1996. From 'Introduction' ix-xv. Life in 2030: Exploring a Sustainable Future for Canada, edited by J.B. Robinson et al. Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press.
  4. ^ Page 5. Environmental Change and Challenge : A Canadian Perspective by Philip Dearden, Bruce Mitchell. ISBN 0-19-541014-9 / 9780195410143 / 0-19-541014-9. Oxford University Press.
  5. ^ Holmberg & Robèrt (2000), p.294.
  6. ^ Stan Development Team (2014-07-20). Stan Modeling Language: User's Guide and Reference Manual. Stan. p. 39. Archived from the original on 2014-08-19. Retrieved 2014-08-17.