Causes of the Great Depression

US annual real GDP from 1910 to 1960, with the years of the Great Depression (1929–1939) highlighted.
CPI 1914-2022
  Inflation
  Deflation
  M2 money supply increases Year/Year
Money supply decreased significantly between Black Tuesday, October 24, 1929, and the Bank Holiday in March 1933 when there were massive bank runs across the United States.

The causes of the Great Depression in the early 20th century in the United States have been extensively discussed by economists and remain a matter of active debate.[1] They are part of the larger debate about economic crises and recessions. The specific economic events that took place during the Great Depression are well established.

There was an initial stock market crash that triggered a "panic sell-off" of assets. This was followed by a deflation in asset and commodity prices, dramatic drops in demand and the total quantity of money in the economy, and disruption of trade, ultimately resulting in widespread unemployment (over 13 million people were unemployed by 1932) and impoverishment. However, economists and historians have not reached a consensus on the causal relationships between various events and government economic policies in causing or ameliorating the Depression.

Current mainstream theories may be broadly classified into two main points of view. The first are the demand-driven theories, from Keynesian and institutional economists who argue that the depression was caused by a widespread loss of confidence that led to drastically lower investment and persistent underconsumption. The demand-driven theories argue that the financial crisis following the 1929 crash led to a sudden and persistent reduction in consumption and investment spending, causing the depression that followed.[2] Once panic and deflation set in, many people believed they could avoid further losses by keeping clear of the markets. Holding money therefore became profitable as prices dropped lower and a given amount of money bought ever more goods, exacerbating the drop in demand.

Second, there are the monetarists, who believe that the Great Depression started as an ordinary recession, but that significant policy mistakes by monetary authorities (especially the Federal Reserve) caused a shrinking of the money supply which greatly exacerbated the economic situation, causing a recession to descend into the Great Depression.[3] Related to this explanation are those who point to debt deflation causing those who borrow to owe ever more in real terms.

There are also several various heterodox theories that reject the explanations of the Keynesians and monetarists. Some new classical macroeconomists have argued that various labor market policies imposed at the start caused the length and severity of the Great Depression.

  1. ^ Humphrey, Thomas M.; Timberlake, Richard H. (April 2, 2019). GOLD, THE REAL BILLS DOCTRINE, AND THE FED : sources of monetary disorder, 1922–1938. CATO INSTITUTE. ISBN 978-1-948647-55-7.
  2. ^ Field, Alexander J. (2011). A Great Leap Forward: 1930s Depression and U.S. Economic Growth. New Haven, London: Yale University Press. p. 182. ISBN 978-0-300-15109-1Field cites Freeman & Schwartz (1963), Temin (1976), Bernanke (1983), Field (1984), Romer (1990), Eighengreen (1992){{cite book}}: CS1 maint: postscript (link)
  3. ^ Milton Friedman; Anna Jacobson Schwartz (2008). The Great Contraction, 1929–1933 (New ed.). Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0691137940.