Cherry picking

This article is about the logical fallacy. For the harvesting of cherries, see Cherry § Cultivation. For other uses, see Cherry picking (disambiguation).
"Card stacking" redirects here. For towers built with playing cards, see House of cards.
Cherry-picking is often used in science denial such as climate change denial. For example, by deliberately cherry picking appropriate time periods, here 1998–2012, an artificial "pause" can be created, even when there is an ongoing warming trend.[1] The same problem could occur with the zoomed-out portion of the graph; if the data from before 1880 went in an unpredicted direction, that would cause another (unintentional) cherry picking fallacy. Furthermore, the temperature average was taken from 1951 to 1980, a relatively short span of time, so perhaps the true average temperature could be far different.

Cherry picking, suppressing evidence, or the fallacy of incomplete evidence is the act of pointing to individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position while ignoring a significant portion of related and similar cases or data that may contradict that position. Cherry picking may be committed intentionally or unintentionally.[2]

The term is based on the perceived process of harvesting fruit, such as cherries. The picker would be expected to select only the ripest and healthiest fruits. An observer who sees only the selected fruit may thus wrongly conclude that most, or even all, of the tree's fruit is in a likewise good condition. This can also give a false impression of the quality of the fruit (since it is only a sample and is not a representative sample). A concept sometimes confused with cherry picking is the idea of gathering only the fruit that is easy to harvest, while ignoring other fruit that is higher up on the tree and thus more difficult to obtain (see low-hanging fruit).

Cherry picking has a negative connotation as the practice neglects, overlooks or directly suppresses evidence that could lead to a complete picture.

Cherry picking can be found in many logical fallacies. For example, the "fallacy of anecdotal evidence" tends to overlook large amounts of data in favor of that known personally, "selective use of evidence" rejects material unfavorable to an argument, while a false dichotomy picks only two options when more are available. Some scholars classify cherry-picking as a fallacy of selective attention, the most common example of which is the confirmation bias.[3] Cherry picking can refer to the selection of data or data sets so a study or survey will give desired, predictable results which may be misleading or even completely contrary to reality.[4]

  1. ^ Sven Ove Hansson: Science denial as a form of pseudoscience. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science. 63, 2017, pp 39–47, doi:10.1016/j.shpsa.2017.05.002.
  2. ^ Klass, Gary. "Just Plain Data Analysis: Common Statistical Fallacies in Analyses of Social Indicator Data. Department of Politics and Government, Illinois State University" (PDF). statlit.org. ~2008. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 25, 2014. Retrieved March 25, 2014.
  3. ^ "Fallacies | Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy".
  4. ^ Goldacre, Ben (2008). Bad Science. HarperCollins Publishers. pp. 97–99. ISBN 978-0-00-728319-4.