Draft:Origin of rogue waves

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The exact origins deriving the mechanics of rogue waves has been a matter of active research and ongoing scientific debate.^[1] Amongst scientific consensus, the development of rogue waves is likely influenced by several collective environmental factors, including wind, wave oscillations, currents, and possibly gale forces.^[a] The universal cause explaining the origins of rogue waves exists in numerous hypotheses, the most prominent explanations include Diffractive focusing, nonlinear effects (modulational instability), and wind wave interactions. In human knowledge, rogue waves originated in myth, existing through anecdotal evidence given by early eyewitness accounts.^[3][b] The irregular damage inflicted upon ships later suggested that large surface anomalies have long occurred; the application of modern technology and oceanographic studies confirmed the existence of unpredictable freak waves in later decades, and generated extensive research amongst the scientific community into several possible causes. The ambiguity surrounding rogue waves is deeply rooted in the unpredictability of wave propagation and the chaotic dynamics of wind waves attributing to their apparent randomness within evolving sea states.^[5][6]

Rogue waves do not appear to have a single distinct cause.^[7][c] The nature of a "freak" rogue wave are generally agreed to occur variably and without warning, yet can be observed to have highest predictability where a strong ocean current runs counter to the prevailing direction of the traveling waves. Further observations shows high risk areas where currents or winds cause large swells to travel at different speeds, creating a convergence of waves in which a significantly larger wave is created. A majority of research into the causes of rogue waves are focused on the interactions of linear superposition and wave breaking to explain the universal mechanics of rogue wave systems.^{[9][10][11][d]} More recent studies have accounted for the interactions with localized features such as nonuniform topography, wave-current interactions, Antarctic Circumpolar Current, or crossing sea states at high crossing angles as additional theories behind the mechanisms of rogue waves.^[14][11][e] Studies of nonlinear waves suggest that modulational instability can create an unpredictable sea state where the transfer of energy between waves can generate a much larger wave.

Scientific studies of rogue waves can be traced to the recording of an abnormally large wave off of the Gorm Field in the central North Sea. The measurement of the Draupner wave off the Draupner platform was the first rogue wave to be detected by a measuring instrument. Early scientific research of unusual waves began in the 19th century with the discovery of wave of translation by John Scott Russell in 1834, in which the modern study of solitons was formed. The use of statistical models beginning in the 19th century helped to predict wave height while the general knowledge was that wave heights were grouped around a central value equal to the average of the largest third.

Scientific works on "Freak Waves" began with Professor Laurence Draper in 20th century where he documented the efforts of the National Institute of Oceanography in the early 1960s to record wave height. The first scientific study to comprehensively prove that freak waves exist was published in 1997 and began an overall censuses amongst scientific authors that rogue waves exist with the caveat that wave models could not replicate rogue waves.^[15] The 21st century saw the extensive discovery of rogue wave mechanics, with the successful replication of a wave with similar characteristics to the Draupner wave in 2019.^[16]

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