Horizon scanning

For other uses, see Horizon scanning (disambiguation).
For other uses of "HS", see HS (disambiguation).
Futures studies
Concepts
Techniques
Technology assessment and forecasting
Related topics

Horizon scanning (HS) or horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight.[1] It is the early detection and assessment of emerging technologies or threats for mainly policy makers in a domain of choice.[2][3][4] Such domains include agriculture,[5] environmental studies,[6] health care,[7] biosecurity,[2] and food safety.[8]

Some sources mention HS as an alternative name for environmental scanning (ES),[9] or view HS as a subset of ES,[10] or at least suggest ES to have a similar goal to HS.[11] In summary, ES has key differences to HS.[12] ES is rather concerned to provide industry specific information for short-term decision making in a competitive environment.[13][14][15]

  1. ^ Cuhls, Kerstin E. (2020). "Horizon Scanning in Foresight – Why Horizon Scanning is only a part of the game". Futures & Foresight Science. 2 (1): e23. doi:10.1002/ffo2.23. ISSN 2573-5152.
  2. ^ a b "Continuity Central". www.continuitycentral.com. Retrieved 25 February 2021.
  3. ^ Sutherland, William J.; Aveling, Rosalind; Brooks, Thomas M.; et al. (January 2014). "A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014". Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 29 (1): 15–22. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.11.004. PMC 3884124. PMID 24332318.
  4. ^ Smith, J; Ward, D; Michaelides, M; et al. (September 2015). "New and emerging technologies for the treatment of inherited retinal diseases: a horizon scanning review". Eye. 29 (9): 1131–1140. doi:10.1038/eye.2015.115. PMC 4565944. PMID 26113499.
  5. ^ Text Mining for Horizon Scanning: An Insight Into Agricultural Research and Innovation in Africa. Publications Office of the European Union. 2020. ISBN 978-92-76-21446-5.
  6. ^ Sutherland, William J.; Woodroof, Harry J. (1 October 2009). "The need for environmental horizon scanning". Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 24 (10): 523–527. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.04.008. ISSN 0169-5347. PMID 19660827.
  7. ^ Cite error: The named reference healthcare was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  8. ^ "Horizon Scanning and Foresight: An overview of approaches and possible applications in Food Safety" (PDF). FAO. Retrieved 25 February 2021.
  9. ^ Schultz, Wendy L. (1 January 2006). "The cultural contradictions of managing change: using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context". Foresight. 8 (4): 3–12. doi:10.1108/14636680610681996. ISSN 1463-6689.
  10. ^ Miles, Ian; Saritas, Ozcan (2 November 2012). "The depth of the horizon: searching, scanning and widening horizons". Foresight. 14 (6): 530–545. doi:10.1108/14636681211284953.
  11. ^ van Rij, Victor (1 February 2010). "Joint horizon scanning: identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge". Science and Public Policy. 37 (1): 7–18. doi:10.3152/030234210X484801. ISSN 0302-3427.
  12. ^ Rowe, Emily; Wright, George; Derbyshire, James (1 December 2017). "Enhancing horizon scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: Analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important 'weak signals'". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 125: 224–235. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.08.001. ISSN 0040-1625.
  13. ^ Choo, Chun Wei (2002). Information Management for the Intelligent Organization: The Art of Scanning the Environment. Information Today, Inc. ISBN 978-1-57387-125-9.
  14. ^ Miles, Ian; Saritas, Ozcan (2 November 2012). "The depth of the horizon: searching, scanning and widening horizons". Foresight. 14 (6): 530–545. doi:10.1108/14636681211284953. ISSN 1463-6689.
  15. ^ Ramírez, Rafael; Selsky, John W. (February 2016). "Strategic Planning in Turbulent Environments: A Social Ecology Approach to Scenarios". Long Range Planning. 49 (1): 90–102. doi:10.1016/j.lrp.2014.09.002.