Lancet surveys of Iraq War casualties

White and red flags, representing Iraqi and American deaths, sit in the grass quad of The Valley Library on the Corvallis, Oregon campus of Oregon State University. As part of the travelling Iraq Body Count exhibit (not related to the Iraq Body Count project) the flags aim to "raise awareness of the human cost of the Iraq War." The exhibit uses The Lancet as its primary source.

The Lancet, one of the oldest scientific medical journals in the world, published two peer-reviewed studies on the effect of the 2003 invasion of Iraq and subsequent occupation on the Iraqi mortality rate. The first was published in 2004; the second (by many of the same authors) in 2006. The studies estimate the number of excess deaths caused by the occupation, both direct (combatants plus non-combatants) and indirect (due to increased lawlessness, degraded infrastructure, poor healthcare, etc.).

The first survey[1] published on 29 October 2004, estimated 98,000 excess Iraqi deaths (with a range of 8,000 to 194,000, using a 95% confidence interval (CI)) from the 2003 invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq to that time, or about 50% higher than the death rate prior to the invasion. The authors described this as a conservative estimate, because it excluded the extreme statistical outlier data from Fallujah. If the Fallujah cluster were included, the mortality estimate would increase to 150% over pre-invasion rates (95% CI: 1.6 to 4.2).

The second survey[2][3][4] published on 11 October 2006, estimated 654,965 excess deaths related to the war, or 2.5% of the population, through the end of June 2006. The new study applied similar methods and involved surveys between 20 May and 10 July 2006.[4] More households were surveyed, allowing for a 95% confidence interval of 392,979 to 942,636 excess Iraqi deaths. 601,027 deaths (range of 426,369 to 793,663 using a 95% confidence interval) were due to violence. 31% (186,318) of those were attributed to the US-led Coalition, 24% (144,246) to others, and 46% (276,472) unknown. The causes of violent deaths were gunshot (56% or 336,575), car bomb (13% or 78,133), other explosion/ordnance (14%), air strike (13% or 78,133), accident (2% or 12,020), and unknown (2%).

The mortality estimates in the Lancet surveys are higher than in several other reports, including those of the Iraqi Health Ministry and the United Nations, as well as other household surveys such as the Iraq Living Conditions Survey and the Iraq Family Health Survey. The 2007 ORB survey of Iraq War casualties estimated more deaths than the Lancet, though it covered a longer period of the conflict.[5][6] The Lancet surveys have been supported by some journalists, governments, epidemiologists and statisticians, and been met by criticism and disbelief from other journalists, governments, epidemiologists and statisticians.[7]

  1. ^ Roberts, Les; Lafta, Riyadh; Garfield, Richard; Khudhairi, Jamal; Burnham, Gilbert (2004). "Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey" (PDF). The Lancet. 364 (9448): 1857–1864. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17441-2. PMID 15555665. S2CID 1333351. Archived from the original (PDF) on 1 December 2005. (263 KB). By Les Roberts, Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield, Jamal Khudhairi, and Gilbert Burnham. The Lancet, 29 October 2004. There is a version of the PDF article that has a clickable table of contents. It is here: "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 March 2012. Retrieved 14 February 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link).
  2. ^ Burnham, Gilbert; Lafta, Riyadh; Doocy, Shannon; Roberts, Les (2006). "Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey" (PDF). The Lancet. 368 (9545): 1421–1428. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69491-9. PMID 17055943. S2CID 23673934. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 September 2015. (242 KB). By Gilbert Burnham, Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy, and Les Roberts. The Lancet, 11 October 2006
  3. ^ "The Human Cost of the War in Iraq: A Mortality Study, 2002–2006" (PDF). (603 KB). By Gilbert Burnham, Shannon Doocy, Elizabeth Dzeng, Riyadh Lafta, and Les Roberts. A supplement to the October 2006 Lancet study. It is also found here: "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 15 May 2016. Retrieved 9 May 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) [1]
  4. ^ a b "Study Claims Iraq's 'Excess' Death Toll Has Reached 655,000". By David Brown. Washington Post. 11 October 2006.
  5. ^ Cite error: The named reference JFP was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  6. ^ "Conflict Deaths in Iraq: A Methodological Critique of the ORB Survey Estimate" Archived 19 July 2011 at the Wayback Machine By Michael Spagat and Josh Dougherty
  7. ^ Cite error: The named reference TheAge was invoked but never defined (see the help page).