Olduvai theory

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The Olduvai Theory states that the current industrial civilization would have a maximum duration of one hundred years, counted from 1930. From 2030 onwards, humankind would gradually return to levels of civilization comparable to those previously experienced, culminating in about a thousand years (3000 AD) in a hunting-based culture,^[1] such as existed on Earth three million years ago, when the Oldowan industry developed; hence the name of this theory,^{[2][note 1]} put forward by Richard C. Duncan based on his experience in handling energy sources and his love of archaeology.

Originally, the theory was proposed in 1989 under the name "pulse-transient theory".^[3] Subsequently, in 1996, its current name was adopted, inspired by the famous archaeological site, but the theory does not rely in any way on data collected at that site.^[1] Richard C. Duncan has published several versions since the appearance of his first paper with different parameters and predictions, which has been a source of criticism and controversy.

In 2007, Duncan defined five postulates based on the observation of data on:

1. The world energy production per capita.
2. Earth carrying capacity.
3. The return to the use of coal as a primary source and the peak oil production.
4. Migratory movements.
5. The stages of energy utilization in the United States.^[2]

In 2009, he again published an update restating the postulate concerning world energy consumption per capita concerning OECD countries, where previously he only compared with the United States, downplaying the role of emerging economies.^[4]

Different people, such as Pedro A. Prieto, based on this and other theories of catastrophic collapse or die-off, have formulated probable scenarios with various dates and social events.^[5][6] On the other hand, there is a group of people, such as Richard Heinberg or Jared Diamond, who also believe in social collapse, but still visualize the possibility of more benevolent scenarios where degrowth can occur with continued welfare.^[7][8][6]

This theory has been criticized for the way in which the problem of migratory movements is posed and for the ideological orientation of the publishing house that published its articles, the Social Contract Press, which is an advocate of anti-immigration measures and birth control.^[9][10] There are major criticisms on each of the argumentative bases and different ideologies contrary to such approaches such as the Cornucopians,^[11] the advocates of the natural resource-based economy,^[12] environmentalist positions and the positions of various nations also fail to establish a consistent basis for such claims.

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