Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.[1][2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner.[3] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012.[3] The month section in the tables represents the month in which the opinion poll was conducted. D represents the Democratic Party, and R represents the Republican Party. Third parties, such as the Dixiecrats and the Reform Party, were included in some polls.[4]
- ^ Hillygus, D. S. (December 1, 2011). "The Evolution of Election Polling in the United States". Public Opinion Quarterly. 75 (5): 962–981. doi:10.1093/poq/nfr054. Retrieved October 6, 2024.
- ^ "Poll" in The Columbia Encyclopedia, 6th ed.' New York. Columbia University Press. 2012. OCLC 746941797[ISBN missing]
- ^ a b Shafer, Jack. "Opinion | Journalists Are Hooked on Polls and They'll Stay That Way". POLITICO. Retrieved November 19, 2021.
- ^ "Gallup Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends, 1936-2008". gallup.com. Gallup, Inc. Archived from the original on June 30, 2017. Retrieved August 30, 2012.