Swing state

Map of states by partisan lean in the 2024 United States presidential election, weighted relative to the national popular vote margin (4.5% in favor of the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, over the Republican nominee, Donald Trump)
Legend (darker indicates greater margin):
  Relative lean of <5 points toward Harris
  Relative lean of <5 points toward Trump
  Relative lean of 5–10 points toward Harris
  Relative lean of 5–10 points toward Trump
  Relative lean of >10 points toward Harris
  Relative lean of >10 points toward Trump

In United States politics, a swing state (also known as battleground state, toss-up state, or purple state) is any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to presidential elections, by a swing in votes. These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns, especially in competitive elections.[1] Meanwhile, the states that regularly lean to a single party are known as "safe states" (or more specifically as "red states" and "blue states" depending on the partisan leaning), as it is generally assumed that one candidate has a base of support from which a sufficient share of the electorate can be drawn without significant investment or effort by the campaign.

Due to the winner-take-all method that most states use to determine their presidential electors, candidates often campaign only in competitive states, which is why a select group of states frequently receives a majority of the advertisements and candidate visits.[2] The battlegrounds may change in certain election cycles and may be reflected in overall polling, demographics, and the ideological appeal of the nominees.

  1. ^ Sabato, Larry J.; Kondik, Kyle; Skelley, Geoffrey (March 31, 2016). "The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters". Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball. Center For Politics. Retrieved January 27, 2017.
  2. ^ Beachler, Donald W.; Bergbower, Matthew L.; Cooper, Chris; Damore, David F.; van Doorn, Bas; Foreman, Sean D.; Gill, Rebecca; Hendriks, Henriët; Hoffmann, Donna (October 29, 2015). Schultz, David; Hecht, Stacey Hunter (eds.). Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter. Lexington Books. ISBN 9780739195246.