The Good Judgment Project

The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania.[1][2][3]

The project began as a participant in the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA).[4][5] It then extended its crowd wisdom to commercial activities, recruiting forecasters and aggregating the predictions of the most historically accurate among them to forecast future events.[6][7] Predictions are scored using Brier scores.[8] The top forecasters in GJP are "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information."[9]

  1. ^ "Welcome to the Good Judgment Project". The Good Judgment Project. Retrieved May 5, 2014.
  2. ^ "Who's who in the Good Judgment Project". The Good Judgment Project. July 27, 2011. Retrieved May 5, 2014.
  3. ^ Brooks, David (March 21, 2013). "Forecasting Fox". New York Times. Retrieved May 5, 2014.
  4. ^ "The Project". The Good Judgment Project. Archived from the original on May 6, 2014. Retrieved May 5, 2014.
  5. ^ Horowitz, Michael (November 26, 2013). "Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)". Washington Post. Retrieved May 5, 2014.
  6. ^ "About Superforecasting | Unprecedented Accurate & Precise Forecasting". Good Judgment. Retrieved 2022-02-17.
  7. ^ Matthews, Dylan (2022-02-16). "How can we prevent major conflicts like a Russia-Ukraine war?". Vox. Retrieved 2022-02-17.
  8. ^ Dickenson, Matt (November 12, 2013). "Prediction and Good Judgment: Can ICEWS Inform Forecasts?". Predictive Heuristics. Retrieved May 24, 2014.
  9. ^ Cite error: The named reference :0 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).