Confirmation bias is a tendency for people to favor information that confirms their preconceptions. As a result, people recall information from memory selectively, and interpret it in a biased way, in particular for emotionally significant issues and established beliefs. Biased search, interpretation and recall have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (disagreeing parties diverging further when they are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (beliefs persisting after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the primacy effect (data encountered early in a series being given more weight) and illusory correlation (people falsely perceiving an association between two events or situations). Explanations for these biases include wishful thinking and the limited human capacity to process information. Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. This can lead to disastrous decisions, especially in organizational, military and political contexts. (Full article...)