2015 North Sydney by-election

2015 North Sydney by-election
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The North Sydney seat in the House of Representatives
Registered104,352
Turnout78.37% Decrease 13.88
  First party Second party Third party
 
IND
Candidate Trent Zimmerman Stephen Ruff Arthur Chesterfield-Evans
Party Liberal Independent Greens
Popular vote 36,690 14,303 11,959
Percentage 48.20% 18.79% 15.71%
Swing Decrease 12.84 Increase 18.79 Increase 0.36
TPP 60.23% 39.77%
TPP swing Decrease 5.66 Increase 39.77
MP before election

Joe Hockey
Liberal

Elected MP

Trent Zimmerman
Liberal

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of North Sydney was held on 5 December 2015 from 8 am to 6 pm AEDT.[1]

The trigger for the by-election was the 23 October parliamentary resignation of Joe Hockey, the backbench Liberal Member for North Sydney and former Abbott Coalition government Treasurer.[2]

House of Representatives Speaker Tony Smith issued the writ for the by-election on 26 October. The electoral roll containing 104,352 electors closed on 2 November. Candidate nominations closed on 12 November, and the draw of the ballot paper order occurred on 13 November.[3]

The by-election was won by Liberal candidate Trent Zimmerman, a former Hockey staffer, whose pre-selection had been controversial. Zimmerman won with 48.2 percent of the primary vote after a larger-than-predicted 12.8 percent swing against the Turnbull Coalition government. This was only the second time in North Sydney's history that the successful Liberal candidate did not obtain over 50 percent of the primary (first preference) vote and had to rely on preferences, the other time was in the 1961 general election. Zimmerman faced a double-digit primary vote swing − more than triple that of the 2015 Canning by-election − despite the absence of a Labor candidate. Labor have never been successful in the safe Liberal seat.[1]

The Liberal two-candidate vote of 60.2 percent against independent Stephen Ruff compares to the previous election vote of 65.9 percent against Labor.[1] The reduction of 5.7 percent cannot be considered a "two-party/candidate preferred swing" − when a major party is absent, preference flows to both major parties does not take place, resulting in asymmetric preference flows.[4][better source needed][5][better source needed]

Ian Macfarlane attempted to defect from the Liberal party room to the National party room with accompanying demands for additional Nationals cabinet representation, and the Mal Brough / James Ashby diary controversy deepened in the last week of the campaign.[6][7] Along with the unexpected by-election swing and Turnbull's significantly lessened personal ratings in the concurrent December Newspoll led journalists at several news outlets to opine Malcolm Turnbull's honeymoon to be over.[8][9][10]

Zimmerman became the first openly-LGBTI member of the House of Representatives.[11][12]

  1. ^ a b c Green, Antony. "North Sydney by-election 2015". ABC News. Archived from the original on 8 April 2024.
  2. ^ "Zimmerman wins North Sydney preselection". AAP. 26 October 2015. Archived from the original on 8 April 2024. Retrieved 26 October 2015 – via SBS News. Former Joe Hockey staffer Trent Zimmerman has won preselection in the federal seat of North Sydney, prompting calls for him to resign from his role as acting president of the NSW Liberals.
  3. ^ "Enrol now for the 2015 North Sydney by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. 26 October 2015. Key dates for the 2015 North Sydney by-election. Archived from the original on 8 April 2024.
  4. ^ Green, Antony (13 February 2012). "A Comment on the Size of the Port Adelaide Swing". Blogs.abc.net.au. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  5. ^ Green, Antony (4 May 2011). "An example of non-monotonicity and opportunities for Tactical Voting at an Australian election". ABC.net.au. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
  6. ^ Massola, James (3 December 2015). "Liberal MP Ian Macfarlane defects to Nationals in shock move against Malcolm Turnbull". Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 8 April 2024.
  7. ^ Thomsen, Simon (3 December 2015). "Malcolm Turnbull suddenly has a lot of problems". Business Insider. Archived from the original on 19 January 2022. First up is Mal Brough. The Howard-era political fixer was rewarded by Turnbull for his efforts as a numbers man during the PM's ascent, becoming special minister of state, despite lingering questions over Brough's role in the downfall of former speaker Peter Slipper during Labor's time in power.
  8. ^ "Turnbull's 'honeymoon' coming to an end". The Courier Mail. 3 December 2015.
  9. ^ "Is the Turnbull honeymoon over?". The Courier Mail. 7 December 2015.
  10. ^ "Turnbull ducks talk on Brough's future". The Advertiser. 8 December 2015.
  11. ^ Gartrell, Adam (5 December 2015). "Liberal Trent Zimmerman wins North Sydney byelection despite swing". Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 8 April 2024. Retrieved 6 December 2015.
  12. ^ Smith, Justin (26 November 2015). "When an election's not a battle but a limp formality". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 8 April 2024.