Aging of Japan

Population pyramid of Japan from 2020 to projections up to 2100
Japan's population in three demographic categories, from 1920 to 2010, with projections to 2060

Japan has the highest proportion of elderly citizens of any country in the world.[1] 2014 estimates showed that about 38% of the Japanese population was above the age of 60, and 25.9% was above the age of 65, a figure that increased to 29.1% by 2022. By 2050, an estimated one-third of the population in Japan is expected to be 65 and older.[2] Population aging in Japan preceded similar trends in other countries, such as South Korea and China.[3][4]

The aging of Japanese society, characterized by sub-replacement fertility rates and high life expectancy, is expected to continue. Japan had a post-war baby boom between 1947 and 1949, followed by a prolonged period of low fertility.[5] These trends resulted in the decline of Japan's population after reaching a peak of 128.1 million in October 2008.[6] In 2014, Japan's population was estimated to be 127 million. This figure is expected to shrink to 107 million (by 16%) by 2040 and to 97 million (by 24%) by 2050 if this current demographic trend continues.[7] A recent global analysis found that Japan was one of 23 countries that could see a total population decline of 50% or more by 2100.[8] These trends have led some researchers to claim that Japan is transforming into a "super-ageing" society in both rural and urban areas.[9]

Japanese citizens largely view Japan as comfortable and modern, with no widespread sense of a "population crisis".[6] The Japanese government has responded to concerns about the stresses demographic changes place on the economy and social services with policies intended to restore the fertility rate as well as increase the activity of the elderly in society.[10]

  1. ^ "Elderly citizens accounted for record 28.4% of Japan's population in 2018, data show". The Japan Times. 15 September 2019. Retrieved 7 June 2020.
  2. ^ "Aging in Japan｜ILC-Japan". www.ilcjapan.org. Retrieved 2017-03-21.
  3. ^ Lipscy, Phillip Y. (2023). "Japan: the harbinger state". Japanese Journal of Political Science. 24 (1): 80–97. doi:10.1017/S1468109922000329. ISSN 1468-1099.
  4. ^ "An ageing country shows others how to manage". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2024-05-31.
  5. ^ Marlow, Iain (13 November 2015). "Bold steps: Japan's remedy for a rapidly aging society". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved 2017-04-05.
  6. ^ a b Armstrong, Shiro (May 16, 2016). "Japan's Greatest Challenge (And It's Not China): Massive Population Decline". The National Interest. Archived from the original on March 21, 2017. Retrieved June 22, 2020.
  7. ^ Johnston, Eric (16 May 2015). "Is Japan becoming extinct?". The Japan Times Online. Retrieved 13 September 2018.
  8. ^ Vollset, Stein Emil; Goren, Emily; Yuan, Chun-Wei; Cao, Jackie; Smith, Amanda E; Hsiao, Thomas; Bisignano, Catherine; Azhar, Gulrez S; Castro, Emma; Chalek, Julian; Dolgert, Andrew J; Frank, Tahvi; Fukutaki, Kai; Hay, Simon I; Lozano, Rafael (2020). "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study". The Lancet. 396 (10258): 1285–1306. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2. PMC 7561721. PMID 32679112.
  9. ^ Muramatsu, Naoko; Akiyama, Hiroko (1 August 2011). "Japan: Super-Aging Society Preparing for the Future". The Gerontologist. 51 (4): 425–432. doi:10.1093/geront/gnr067. PMID 21804114.
  10. ^ Yoshida, Reiji (29 October 2015). "Abe convenes panel to tackle low birthrate, aging population". The Japan Times. Retrieved 21 February 2016.