Aging of the United States

Population pyramid of the United States in 2023

In recent decades, the fertility rate of the United States has declined below replacement level, prompting projections of an aging population and workforce,[1][2] as is already happening elsewhere in the developed world and some developing countries.[3] The decline has been most noticeable since after the Great Recession of the late 2000s.[4] Nevertheless, the rate of aging in the United States remains slower than that seen in many other countries,[5][6] including some developing ones,[3] giving the nation a significant competitive advantage.[7][8][9][10] Unintentional pregnancies have become less common;[11] in particular, teenage pregnancies have dropped to record lows.[12]

As of the 2010s and early 2020s, many Baby Boomers continue to postpone retirement[13] while Millennials and Generation Z are responsible for a surge in the labor force.[14][15] Still, seniors are retiring faster than youths can replace them, partly due to the time needed to acquire the necessary skills and knowledge.[16][17] Going forward in the 2020s, a priority for state legislatures is to retain and attract skilled workers from other states.[17] At the national level, the United States faces shortages of skilled workers, but does not offer foreign talents, including graduates of American universities, a straightforward path towards residency or citizenship.[18][19]

At the same time, industrial automation has accelerated to address the labor shortage[20] while a combination of population aging and growing public skepticism has led to the shrinkage of higher education.[21] There are currently many high-skilled jobs that do not require a college degree.[22]

Women's workforce participation has grown as the nation's birthrate declines, opening up more opportunities for them.[23] But American women continue to have more children on average than their counterparts in other industrialized nations despite the fact that the United States does not offer generous welfare programs by comparison.[6] Given the experience of other countries, pro-natalist policies such as paid maternity leave are unlikely to significantly increase the birthrate in the United States.[24][25] As the youth bulge fades away after the 2020s, the United States may be less prone to sociopolitical instability.[26][27]

Nevertheless, it remains unclear how population aging would affect the United States in the long run.

  1. ^ Howard, Jacqueline (January 10, 2019). "US fertility rate is below level needed to replace population, study says". CNN. Retrieved May 6, 2023.
  2. ^ Cite error: The named reference :30 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  3. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference :36 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  4. ^ Cite error: The named reference :32 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  5. ^ Friedman, Uri (June 28, 2014). "The End of the Age Pyramid". The Atlantic. Archived from the original on June 29, 2014. Retrieved May 12, 2023.
  6. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference :16 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  7. ^ Cite error: The named reference :37 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  8. ^ Levine, Steve (July 3, 2019). "Demographics may decide the U.S-China rivalry". Axios. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  9. ^ Cite error: The named reference :4 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  10. ^ "The lessons from America's astonishing economic record". The Economist. April 13, 2023. Archived from the original on April 14, 2023. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  11. ^ Cite error: The named reference PewPotential was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  12. ^ Cite error: The named reference :62 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  13. ^ Cite error: The named reference :57 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  14. ^ Cite error: The named reference :9 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  15. ^ Cite error: The named reference :43 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  16. ^ Cite error: The named reference :58 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  17. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference :59 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  18. ^ Cite error: The named reference :67 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  19. ^ Cite error: The named reference :65 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  20. ^ Cite error: The named reference :60 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  21. ^ Cite error: The named reference :232 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  22. ^ Cite error: The named reference :11 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  23. ^ Cite error: The named reference :26 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  24. ^ Kearney, Melissa S.; Levine, Phillip B. (January 9, 2022). "The Causes and Consequences of Declining US Fertility". Aspen Economic Strategy Group Policy Volume.
  25. ^ Burn-Murdoch, John (March 29, 2024). "Why family-friendly policies don't boost birth rates". Financial Times. Archived from the original on March 29, 2024. Retrieved March 29, 2024.
  26. ^ Cite error: The named reference :61 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  27. ^ Marriott, James (June 10, 2023). "End Times by Peter Turchin review — prepare for revolution". The Times. Archived from the original on October 21, 2024. Retrieved October 21, 2024.