Carbon bubble

Carbon Bubble according to data by the Carbon Tracker Initiative (2013)

The carbon bubble is a hypothesized bubble in the valuation of companies dependent on fossil-fuel-based energy production, resulting from future decreases in value of fossil fuel reserves as they become unusable in order to meet carbon budgets and recognition of negative externalities of carbon fuels which are not yet taken into account in a company's stock market valuation.[1][2]

While most campaigns to reduce the investment, production, and use of fossil fuels has been based on ethical reasons,[3] financial analysts, economists, and financial institutions have increasingly argued in favor of doing so for financial reasons.[4][5][6][7] Thus, properly pricing fossil fuels based on the carbon bubble theory would mean renewable energy would be significantly more attractive to invest in, and therefore speed up the transition towards sustainable energy.[8]

Many investors throughout the world are raising capital for fossil fuel exploration. However, as the current reserves already exceed the carbon budget these new reserves are unlikely to be exploited, meaning the value of those investments will suffer serious decreases.[9][10] However, investors are currently encouraged by quarterly result cycles and current accounting standards to ignore these long-term issues in favor of higher short-term gains.[9] The biggest problem for governments and investors is re-balancing the value of these investments with as little damage to the economy or market as possible.[9] An estimate made by Kepler Cheuvreux puts the loss in value of the fossil fuel companies due to the impact of the growing renewables industry at US$28 trillion over the next two decades.[11][12] A more recent analysis made by Citi puts that figure at $100 trillion.[13][14]

In 2021, an analysis has found 90% of coal and 60% of oil and gas reserves could not be extracted if there was to be even a 50% chance of keeping global heating below 1.5C.[citation needed]

  1. ^ Harvey, Fiona (6 March 2014). "'Carbon bubble' poses serious threat to UK economy, MPs warn". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 6 March 2014. Retrieved 6 March 2014.
  2. ^ Rubin, Jeff (12 May 2015). The Carbon Bubble. Penguin Random House. ISBN 978-0345814715. Archived from the original on 27 October 2015. Retrieved 9 October 2015.
  3. ^ Barack Obama (6 November 2015). Statement by the President on the Keystone XL Pipeline (Speech). whitehouse.gov. Archived from the original on 15 September 2021. Retrieved 10 November 2015 – via National Archives.
  4. ^ Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi (2015). "Divest from the Carbon Bubble? Reviewing the Implications and Limitations of Fossil Fuel Divestment for Institutional Investors". Review of Economics & Finance. 5: 59–80.
  5. ^ Harvey, Fiona (6 March 2014). "'Carbon bubble' poses serious threat to UK economy, MPs warn". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 6 March 2014. Retrieved 6 March 2014.
  6. ^ The impact of climate change on the UK insurance sector (PDF) (Report). Bank of England. September 2015. Archived (PDF) from the original on 25 October 2016. Retrieved 9 November 2015.
  7. ^ Carrington, Damian (13 October 2019). "Firms ignoring climate crisis will go bankrupt, says Mark Carney". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Archived from the original on 19 November 2021. Retrieved 18 October 2019.
  8. ^ "Unburnable Carbon – Are the world's financial markets carrying a carbon bubble?". Archived from the original on 18 August 2013.
  9. ^ a b c "Unburnable Carbon – Are the world's financial markets carrying a carbon bubble?". Archived from the original on 18 August 2013.
  10. ^ Cite error: The named reference :2 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  11. ^ Giles Parkinson (28 April 2014). "Fossil fuels face $30 trillion losses from climate, renewables". Renew Economy. Archived from the original on 29 April 2014.
  12. ^ Lewis, Mark C. (24 April 2014). "Stranded assets, fossilised revenues" (PDF). Kepler Cheuvreux. Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 October 2015.
  13. ^ Citigroup sees $100 trillion of stranded assets if Paris succeeds, RenewEconomy, 25 August 2015
  14. ^ "Energy Darwinism II". Citi GPS. 14 August 2015. Archived from the original on 29 March 2017. Retrieved 9 November 2015.