Chinese Century

"Chinese hegemony" redirects here. For the historical hegemons of ancient China, see Five Hegemons.
Map of China

The Chinese Century (simplified Chinese: 中国世纪; traditional Chinese: 中國世紀; pinyin: Zhōngguó shìjì) is a neologism suggesting that the 21st century may be geoeconomically or geopolitically dominated by the People's Republic of China,[1] similar to how the "American Century" refers to the 20th century and the "British Century" to the 19th.[2][3] The phrase is used particularly in association with the idea that the economy of China may overtake the economy of the United States to be the largest in the world.[4][5] A similar term is China's rise or rise of China (simplified Chinese: 中国崛起; traditional Chinese: 中國崛起; pinyin: Zhōngguó juéqǐ).[6][7]

China created the Belt and Road Initiative, which according to analysts has been a geostrategic effort to take a larger role in global affairs and challenges American postwar hegemony.[8][9][10] It has also been argued that China co-founded the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and New Development Bank to compete with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in development finance.[11][12] In 2015, China launched the Made in China 2025 strategic plan to further develop its manufacturing sector. There have been debates on the effectiveness and practicality of these programs in promoting China's global status.

China's emergence as a global economic power is tied to its large working population.[13] However, the population in China is aging faster than almost any other country in history.[13][14] Current demographic trends could hinder economic growth, create challenging social problems, and limit China's capabilities to act as a new global hegemon.[13][15][16][17] China's primarily debt-driven economic growth also creates concerns for substantial credit default risks and a potential financial crisis.

According to The Economist, on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis, the Chinese economy became the world's largest in 2013.[18] On a foreign exchange rate basis, some estimates in 2020 and early 2021 said that China could overtake the U.S. in 2028,[19] or 2026 if the Chinese currency further strengthened.[20] As of July 2021, Bloomberg L.P. analysts estimated that China may either overtake the U.S. to become the world's biggest economy in the 2030s or never be able to reach such a goal.[21] Some scholars believe that China's rise has peaked and that an impending stagnation or decline may follow.[22][23][24]

  1. ^ Brands, Hal (February 19, 2018). "The Chinese Century?". The National Interest. Archived from the original on March 14, 2021. Retrieved March 18, 2021.
  2. ^ Rees-Mogg, William (3 January 2005). "This is the Chinese century". The Times. London. Archived from the original on 12 April 2020. Retrieved 12 September 2009.
  3. ^ admin (2014-06-04). "Empires and Colonialism in the 19th Century". American Numismatic Society. Retrieved 2024-10-21.
  4. ^ "Global Economy Watch - Projections > Real GDP / Inflation > Share of 2016 world GDP". PWC. Retrieved 23 June 2017.
  5. ^ Thurow, Lester (August 19, 2007). "A Chinese Century? Maybe It's the Next One (Published 2007)". The New York Times. Archived from the original on November 9, 2020. Retrieved March 18, 2021.
  6. ^ Freeman, Charles; Bergsten, C. Fred; Lardy, Nicholas R.; Mitchell, and Derek J. (23 September 2008). "China's Rise". www.csis.org. Archived from the original on 2020-12-23. Retrieved 2021-03-17.
  7. ^ Han, Zhen; Paul, T. V. (2020-03-01). "China's Rise and Balance of Power Politics". The Chinese Journal of International Politics. 13 (1): 1–26. doi:10.1093/cjip/poz018. Archived from the original on 2020-05-08. Retrieved 2021-03-17.
  8. ^ "China's one belt, one road initiative set to transform economy by connecting with trading partners along ancient Silk Road". South China Morning Post. 21 June 2016. Archived from the original on 7 January 2017. Retrieved 7 January 2017.
  9. ^ "One Belt, One Road". Caixin Online. 2014-12-10. Archived from the original on 2016-09-12. Retrieved 2016-04-13.
  10. ^ "What Does China's Belt and Road Initiative Mean for US Grand Strategy?". thediplomat.com. Retrieved 2021-07-24.
  11. ^ "AIIB Vs. NDB: Can New Players Change the Rules of Development Financing?". Caixin. Archived from the original on 2016-12-26. Retrieved 26 December 2016.
  12. ^ Cohn, Theodore H. (2016-05-05). Global Political Economy: Theory and Practice. Routledge. ISBN 9781317334811.
  13. ^ a b c Cite error: The named reference csis_Does_China was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  14. ^ Cite error: The named reference barr_What_Americans was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  15. ^ Tozzo, Brandon (October 18, 2017). "The Demographic and Economic Problems of China". American Hegemony after the Great Recession. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK. pp. 79–92. doi:10.1057/978-1-137-57539-5_5. ISBN 978-1-137-57538-8.
  16. ^ Eberstadt, Nicholas (June 11, 2019). "With Great Demographics Comes Great Power". Foreign Affairs. Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
  17. ^ Sasse, Ben (January 26, 2020). "The Responsibility to Counter China's Ambitions Falls to Us". The Atlantic. Archived from the original on 8 February 2021. Retrieved 4 February 2021.
  18. ^ "The Chinese century is well under way". The Economist. 2018-10-27. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2021-07-24.
  19. ^ Elliot, Larry (26 December 2020). "China to overtake US as world's biggest economy by 2028, report predicts". The Guardian. Retrieved 28 December 2020. With the US expected to contract by 5% this year, China will narrow the gap with its biggest rival, the CEBR said. Overall, global gross domestic product is forecast to decline by 4.4% this year, in the biggest one-year fall since the second world war. Douglas McWilliams, the CEBR's deputy chairman, said: "The big news in this forecast is the speed of growth of the Chinese economy. We expect it to become an upper-income economy during the current five-year plan period (2020-25). And we expect it to overtake the US a full five years earlier than we did a year ago. It would pass the per capita threshold of $12,536 (£9,215) to become a high-income country by 2023.
  20. ^ Cheng, Evelyn; Lee, Yen Nee (February 2021). "New chart shows China could overtake the U.S. as the world's largest economy earlier than expected". CNBC. Retrieved 24 July 2021. could
  21. ^ Cite error: The named reference bloo_When_Will was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  22. ^ Cite error: The named reference Beckley Brands 2021 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  23. ^ Cite error: The named reference :6 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  24. ^ Cite error: The named reference :8 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).