China's emergence as a global economic power is tied to its large working population.[14] However, the population in China is aging faster than almost any other country in history.[14][15] Current demographic trends could hinder economic growth, create challenging social problems, and limit China's capabilities to act as a new global hegemon.[14][16][17][18] China's primarily debt-driven economic growth also creates concerns for substantial credit default risks and a potential financial crisis.
According to The Economist, on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis, the Chinese economy became the world's largest in 2013.[19] On a foreign exchange rate basis, some estimates in 2020 and early 2021 said that China could overtake the U.S. in 2028,[20] or 2026 if the Chinese currency further strengthened.[21] As of July 2021, Bloomberg L.P. analysts estimated that China may either overtake the U.S. to become the world's biggest economy in the 2030s or never be able to reach such a goal.[22] Some scholars believe that China's rise has peaked and that an impending stagnation or decline may follow.[23][24][25]
^Freeman, Charles; Bergsten, C. Fred; Lardy, Nicholas R.; Mitchell, and Derek J. (23 September 2008). "China's Rise". www.csis.org. Archived from the original on 2020-12-23. Retrieved 2021-03-17.
^Elliot, Larry (26 December 2020). "China to overtake US as world's biggest economy by 2028, report predicts". The Guardian. Retrieved 28 December 2020. With the US expected to contract by 5% this year, China will narrow the gap with its biggest rival, the CEBR said. Overall, global gross domestic product is forecast to decline by 4.4% this year, in the biggest one-year fall since the second world war. Douglas McWilliams, the CEBR's deputy chairman, said: "The big news in this forecast is the speed of growth of the Chinese economy. We expect it to become an upper-income economy during the current five-year plan period (2020-25). And we expect it to overtake the US a full five years earlier than we did a year ago. It would pass the per capita threshold of $12,536 (£9,215) to become a high-income country by 2023.