Climate change and insurance in the United States

The effects of climate change on extreme weather events is requiring the insurance industry in the United States to recalculate risk assessments for various types of insurance.[1][2] From 1980 to 2005, private and federal government insurers in the United States paid $320 billion in constant 2005 dollars in claims due to weather-related losses while the total amount paid in claims annually generally increased, and 88% of all property insurance losses in the United States from 1980 to 2005 were weather-related.[3][4] Annual insured natural catastrophe losses in the United States grew 10-fold in inflation-adjusted terms from $49 billion in total from 1959 to 1988 to $98 billion in total from 1989 to 1998,[5] while the ratio of premium revenue to natural catastrophe losses fell six-fold from 1971 to 1999 and natural catastrophe losses were the primary factor in 10% of the approximately 700 U.S. insurance company insolvencies from 1969 to 1999 and possibly a contributing factor in 53%.[6]

From 2005 to 2021, annual insured natural catastrophe losses continued to rise in inflation-adjusted terms with average annual losses increasing by 700% in constant 2021 dollars from 1985 to 2021.[7] In 2005, Ceres released a white paper that found that catastrophic weather-related insurance losses in the United States rose 10 times faster than premiums in inflation-adjusted terms from 1971 to 2004, and projected that climate change would likely cause higher premiums and deductibles and impact the affordability and availability of property insurance, crop insurance, health insurance, life insurance, business interruption insurance, and liability insurance in the United States.[8] From 2013 to 2023, U.S. insurance companies paid $655.7 billion in natural disaster claims with the $295.8 billion paid from 2020 to 2022 setting a record for a three-year period,[9] and after only the Philippines, the United States lost the largest share of its gross domestic product in 2022 of any country due to natural disasters while having the greatest annual economic loss in absolute terms.[10]

In September 2024, Verisk Analytics released an annually issued report that noted that while interannual changes in global insured natural catastrophe losses owes mostly to increased exposure (i.e. growth in the number of insurance policies sold), inflation, and climate variability rather than climate change, the report also summarized company projections that estimated that climate change increases the global average annual insured loss 1% year-over-year (in comparison to 7% that year for exposure growth and inflation), and that the impact of climate change on interannual changes could become comparable to that of climate variability by 2050 due to the former following a compound growth rate.[11][12][13] While home insurance, property insurance, and reinsurance premiums and catastrophe bond interest rates in the United States are increasing, research in extreme event attribution has estimated that of the $143 billion in annual average global economic losses from 2000 to 2019 due to claims related to extreme weather events caused by climate change, only 37% was attributable to property damage and 63% was attributable to the lost value of statistical lives from event fatalities.[14][15] Due to rising hospitalizations from the effects of climate change on human health (like heat stress and cardiorespiratory fitness impacts from wildfire smoke),[16][17][18] health insurance companies in the United States are beginning to develop models for their policies related to climate risk.[19]

Healthcare policy analysis published in June 2023 estimated that 65 million workers in the United States between the ages of 19 and 64 (or more than two-fifths of the U.S. labor force) are in occupations at increased risk for climate-related medical problems with non-white Americans and Americans with lower levels of educational attainment statistically overrepresented in such occupations and 16% of such workers lacking health insurance coverage (in comparison to 7% of workers not in such occupations).[20][21] Parametric insurance coverage has increasingly been offered to businesses and local governments in the United States to cover losses from property damage, lost productivity, and workplace injuries related to the rising frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves.[22] From 1980 to 2005, weather-related claims to the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) cost $43.6 billion in constant 2005 dollars, which represented 14% of all weather-related insurance losses in the United States during the period while the FCIC's exposure to weather-related losses grew 26-fold.[23][3] In July 2021, research published in Environmental Research Letters estimated that county-level temperature increases from 1991 to 2017 accounted for 19% of crop insurance losses (amounting to $27 billion) on FCIC policies and approximately half of the losses in 2012 (the costliest year surveyed) during the 2012–2013 North American drought.[24][25]

  1. ^ Scism, Leslie (August 12, 2018). "Big New Challenge for Insurers: Extreme Weather". The Wall Street Journal. News Corp. Retrieved October 21, 2023.
  2. ^ Hope, Bradley; Friedman, Nicole (October 2, 2018). "Climate Change Is Forcing the Insurance Industry to Recalculate". The Wall Street Journal. News Corp. Retrieved October 21, 2023.
  3. ^ a b Climate Change: Financial Risks to Federal and Private Insurers in Coming Decades Are Potentially Significant – Highlights (PDF) (Report). Government Accountability Office. March 16, 2007. Retrieved May 31, 2024.
  4. ^ Climate Change: Financial Risks to Federal and Private Insurers in Coming Decades Are Potentially Significant – Full Report (PDF) (Report). Government Accountability Office. March 16, 2007. pp. 17–19. Retrieved May 31, 2024.
  5. ^ Mills, Evan; Lecomte, Eugene; Peara, Andrew (2001). U.S. Insurance Industry Perspectives on Global Climate Change (Report). Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. p. 35. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  6. ^ LBNL 2001, pp. 14–15, 39, 65, 75.
  7. ^ Trends and Insights: Drivers of homeowners' insurance rate increases (PDF) (Report). Insurance Information Institute. March 16, 2022. Retrieved June 10, 2024.
  8. ^ Mills, Evan; Roth, Richard J.; Lecomte, Eugene (2005). Availability and Affordability of Insurance Under Climate Change: A Growing Challenge for the U.S. (PDF) (Report). Ceres. pp. 2, 16–29. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  9. ^ Bogage, Jacob (September 3, 2023). "Home insurers cut natural disasters from policies as climate risks grow". The Washington Post. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
  10. ^ Osaka, Shannon (March 16, 2024). "Why Americans pay so much more than anyone else for weather disasters". The Washington Post. Retrieved May 29, 2024.
  11. ^ Demos, Telis (September 27, 2024). "Sorry, Your Insurance Bill Probably Isn't Coming Down Much. Here's Why". The Wall Street Journal. News Corp. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  12. ^ "New Report: Average Annual Natural Catastrophe Losses for the Insurance Industry Reaches New High of $151 Billion" (Press release). Verisk Analytics. September 3, 2024. Retrieved October 1, 2024.
  13. ^ Verisk 2024 Global Modeled Catastrophe Losses (PDF) (Report). Verisk Analytics. September 3, 2024. pp. 5–6, 18–19. Retrieved October 1, 2024.
  14. ^ Shan, Lee Ying (October 23, 2023). "The climate crisis has a price — and it's $391 million a day". CNBC. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  15. ^ Newman, Rebecca; Noy, Ilan (2023). "The global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change". Nature Communications. 14 (6103). Nature Portfolio. doi:10.1038/s41467-023-41888-1.
  16. ^ Ip, Greg (August 1, 2018). "Adding Up the Cost of Climate Change in Lost Lives". The Wall Street Journal. News Corp. Retrieved February 17, 2024.
  17. ^ Carleton, Tamma; Jina, Amir; Delgado, Michael; Greenstone, Michael; Houser, Trevor; Hsiang, Solomon; Hultgren, Andrew; Kopp, Robert E.; McCusker, Kelly E.; Nath, Ishan; Rising, James; Rode, Ashwin; Seo, Hee Kwon; Viaene, Arvid; Yuan, Jiacan; Zhang, Alice Tianbo (2022). "Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits". The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 137 (4). Oxford University Press: 2037–2105. doi:10.1093/qje/qjac020. SSRN 3224365.
  18. ^ Chen, Chen; Schwarz, Lara; Rosenthal, Noam; Marlier, Miriam E.; Benmarhnia, Tarik (2024). "Exploring spatial heterogeneity in synergistic effects of compound climate hazards: Extreme heat and wildfire smoke on cardiorespiratory hospitalizations in California". Science Advances. 10 (5). American Association for the Advancement of Science. doi:10.1126/sciadv.adj7264.
  19. ^ Khan, Yusuf (February 14, 2024). "Climate Change Has Hit Home Insurance. Is Health Insurance Next?". The Wall Street Journal. News Corp. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  20. ^ Nova, Annie (April 26, 2024). "Climate change could cost Americans born in 2024 nearly $500,000 in their lifetime". CNBC. Retrieved June 9, 2024.
  21. ^ Ndugga, Nambi; Pillai, Drishti; Artiga, Samantha (June 26, 2023). Climate-Related Health Risks Among Workers: Who is at Increased Risk? (Report). KFF. Retrieved June 9, 2024.
  22. ^ Eaglesham, Jean (July 13, 2024). "Extreme Heat Is Causing Billions in Damages That Insurers Won't Cover". The Wall Street Journal. News Corp. Retrieved September 11, 2024.
  23. ^ GAO 2007a, p. 22.
  24. ^ Cooley, Patrick (March 27, 2024). "They Grow Your Berries and Peaches, but Often Lack One Item: Insurance". The New York Times. The New York Times Company. Retrieved May 21, 2024.
  25. ^ Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Davenport, Frances V.; Burke, Marshall (2021). "Historical warming has increased U.S. crop insurance losses". Environmental Research Letters. 16. IOP Publishing: 084025. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac1223.