Earthquake prediction

For probabilistic assessment of general earthquake hazard, see earthquake forecasting.

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Earthquake prediction is a branch of the science of seismology concerned with the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes within stated limits,[1][a] and particularly "the determination of parameters for the next strong earthquake to occur in a region".[2] Earthquake prediction is sometimes distinguished from earthquake forecasting, which can be defined as the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake hazard, including the frequency and magnitude of damaging earthquakes in a given area over years or decades.[3][b]

Prediction can be further distinguished from earthquake warning systems, which, upon detection of an earthquake, provide a real-time warning of seconds to neighboring regions that might be affected.

In the 1970s, scientists were optimistic that a practical method for predicting earthquakes would soon be found, but by the 1990s continuing failure led many to question whether it was even possible.[4] Demonstrably successful predictions of large earthquakes have not occurred, and the few claims of success are controversial. For example, the most famous claim of a successful prediction is that alleged for the 1975 Haicheng earthquake.[5] A later study said that there was no valid short-term prediction.[6] Extensive searches have reported many possible earthquake precursors, but, so far, such precursors have not been reliably identified across significant spatial and temporal scales.[7] While part of the scientific community hold that, taking into account non-seismic precursors and given enough resources to study them extensively, prediction might be possible, most scientists are pessimistic and some maintain that earthquake prediction is inherently impossible.[8]

  1. ^ Geller et al. 1997, p. 1616, following Allen 1976, p. 2070, who in turn followed Wood & Gutenberg 1935.
  2. ^ Kagan 1997b, p. 507.
  3. ^ Kanamori 2003, p. 1205.
  4. ^ Geller et al. 1997, p. 1617; Geller 1997, p. 427, §2.3; Console 2001, p. 261.
  5. ^ ICEF 2011, p. 328; Jackson 2004, p. 344.
  6. ^ Wang et al. 2006.
  7. ^ Geller 1997, Summary.
  8. ^ Kagan 1997b; Geller 1997; Main 1999.


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