Ecological fallacy

An ecological fallacy (also ecological inference fallacy^[1] or population fallacy) is a formal fallacy in the interpretation of statistical data that occurs when inferences about the nature of individuals are deduced from inferences about the group to which those individuals belong. "Ecological fallacy" is a term that is sometimes used to describe the fallacy of division, which is not a statistical fallacy. The four common statistical ecological fallacies are: confusion between ecological correlations and individual correlations, confusion between group average and total average, Simpson's paradox, and confusion between higher average and higher likelihood. From a statistical point of view, these ideas can be unified by specifying proper statistical models to make formal inferences, using aggregate data to make unobserved relationships in individual level data.^[2]

^ Charles Ess; Fay Sudweeks (2001). Culture, technology, communication: towards an intercultural global village. SUNY Press. p. 90. ISBN 978-0-7914-5015-4. The problem lies with the 'ecological fallacy' (or fallacy of division)—the impulse to apply group or societal level characteristics to individuals within that group.
^ King, Gary (1997). A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem. Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0-691-01240-7.

[1] Charles Ess; Fay Sudweeks (2001). Culture, technology, communication: towards an intercultural global village. SUNY Press. p. 90. ISBN 978-0-7914-5015-4. The problem lies with the 'ecological fallacy' (or fallacy of division)—the impulse to apply group or societal level characteristics to individuals within that group.

[2] King, Gary (1997). A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem. Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0-691-01240-7.

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