Effective population size

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The effective population size (N_e) is the size of an idealised population that would experience the same rate of genetic drift or increase in inbreeding as the real population. Idealised populations are based on unrealistic but convenient assumptions including random mating, simultaneous birth of each new generation, and constant population size. For most quantities of interest and most real populations, N_e is smaller than the census population size N of a real population.^[1] The same population may have multiple effective population sizes for different properties of interest, including genetic drift and inbreeding.

The effective population size is most commonly measured with respect to the coalescence time. In an idealised diploid population with no selection at any locus, the expectation of the coalescence time in generations is equal to twice the census population size. The effective population size is measured as within-species genetic diversity divided by four times the mutation rate ${\displaystyle \mu }$, because in such an idealised population, the heterozygosity is equal to ${\displaystyle 4N\mu }$. In a population with selection at many loci and abundant linkage disequilibrium, the coalescent effective population size may not reflect the census population size at all, or may reflect its logarithm.

The concept of effective population size was introduced in the field of population genetics in 1931 by the American geneticist Sewall Wright.^[2][3]