Existential risk from artificial intelligence

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Existential risk from artificial intelligence refers to the idea that substantial progress in artificial general intelligence (AGI) could lead to human extinction or an irreversible global catastrophe.[1][2][3][4]

One argument for the importance of this risk references how human beings dominate other species because the human brain possesses distinctive capabilities other animals lack. If AI were to surpass human intelligence and become superintelligent, it might become uncontrollable. Just as the fate of the mountain gorilla depends on human goodwill, the fate of humanity could depend on the actions of a future machine superintelligence.[5]

The plausibility of existential catastrophe due to AI is widely debated. It hinges in part on whether AGI or superintelligence are achievable, the speed at which dangerous capabilities and behaviors emerge,[6] and whether practical scenarios for AI takeovers exist.[7] Concerns about superintelligence have been voiced by computer scientists and tech CEOs such as Geoffrey Hinton,[8] Yoshua Bengio,[9] Alan Turing,[a] Elon Musk,[12] and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.[13] In 2022, a survey of AI researchers with a 17% response rate found that the majority believed there is a 10 percent or greater chance that human inability to control AI will cause an existential catastrophe.[14][15] In 2023, hundreds of AI experts and other notable figures signed a statement declaring, "Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war".[16] Following increased concern over AI risks, government leaders such as United Kingdom prime minister Rishi Sunak[17] and United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres[18] called for an increased focus on global AI regulation.

Two sources of concern stem from the problems of AI control and alignment. Controlling a superintelligent machine or instilling it with human-compatible values may be difficult. Many researchers believe that a superintelligent machine would likely resist attempts to disable it or change its goals as that would prevent it from accomplishing its present goals. It would be extremely challenging to align a superintelligence with the full breadth of significant human values and constraints.[1][19][20] In contrast, skeptics such as computer scientist Yann LeCun argue that superintelligent machines will have no desire for self-preservation.[21]

A third source of concern is the possibility of a sudden "intelligence explosion" that catches humanity unprepared. In this scenario, an AI more intelligent than its creators would be able to recursively improve itself at an exponentially increasing rate, improving too quickly for its handlers or society at large to control.[1][19] Empirically, examples like AlphaZero, which taught itself to play Go and quickly surpassed human ability, show that domain-specific AI systems can sometimes progress from subhuman to superhuman ability very quickly, although such machine learning systems do not recursively improve their fundamental architecture.[22]

  1. ^ a b c Russell, Stuart; Norvig, Peter (2009). "26.3: The Ethics and Risks of Developing Artificial Intelligence". Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall. ISBN 978-0-13-604259-4.
  2. ^ Bostrom, Nick (2002). "Existential risks". Journal of Evolution and Technology. 9 (1): 1–31.
  3. ^ Turchin, Alexey; Denkenberger, David (3 May 2018). "Classification of global catastrophic risks connected with artificial intelligence". AI & Society. 35 (1): 147–163. doi:10.1007/s00146-018-0845-5. ISSN 0951-5666. S2CID 19208453.
  4. ^ Bales, Adam; D'Alessandro, William; Kirk-Giannini, Cameron Domenico (2024). "Artificial Intelligence: Arguments for Catastrophic Risk". Philosophy Compass. 19 (2). arXiv:2401.15487. doi:10.1111/phc3.12964.
  5. ^ Bostrom, Nick (2014). Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (First ed.). Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0-19-967811-2.
  6. ^ Vynck, Gerrit De (23 May 2023). "The debate over whether AI will destroy us is dividing Silicon Valley". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 27 July 2023.
  7. ^ Metz, Cade (10 June 2023). "How Could A.I. Destroy Humanity?". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 27 July 2023.
  8. ^ "'Godfather of artificial intelligence' weighs in on the past and potential of AI". www.cbsnews.com. 25 March 2023. Retrieved 10 April 2023.
  9. ^ "How Rogue AIs may Arise". yoshuabengio.org. 26 May 2023. Retrieved 26 May 2023.
  10. ^ Turing, Alan (1951). Intelligent machinery, a heretical theory (Speech). Lecture given to '51 Society'. Manchester: The Turing Digital Archive. Archived from the original on 26 September 2022. Retrieved 22 July 2022.
  11. ^ Turing, Alan (15 May 1951). "Can digital computers think?". Automatic Calculating Machines. Episode 2. BBC. Can digital computers think?.
  12. ^ Parkin, Simon (14 June 2015). "Science fiction no more? Channel 4's Humans and our rogue AI obsessions". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 5 February 2018. Retrieved 5 February 2018.
  13. ^ Jackson, Sarah. "The CEO of the company behind AI chatbot ChatGPT says the worst-case scenario for artificial intelligence is 'lights out for all of us'". Business Insider. Retrieved 10 April 2023.
  14. ^ "The AI Dilemma". www.humanetech.com. Retrieved 10 April 2023. 50% of AI researchers believe there's a 10% or greater chance that humans go extinct from our inability to control AI.
  15. ^ "2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI". AI Impacts. 4 August 2022. Retrieved 10 April 2023.
  16. ^ Roose, Kevin (30 May 2023). "A.I. Poses 'Risk of Extinction,' Industry Leaders Warn". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 3 June 2023.
  17. ^ Sunak, Rishi (14 June 2023). "Rishi Sunak Wants the U.K. to Be a Key Player in Global AI Regulation". Time.
  18. ^ Cite error: The named reference :12 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  19. ^ a b Yudkowsky, Eliezer (2008). "Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk" (PDF). Global Catastrophic Risks: 308–345. Bibcode:2008gcr..book..303Y. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2 March 2013. Retrieved 27 August 2018.
  20. ^ Russell, Stuart; Dewey, Daniel; Tegmark, Max (2015). "Research Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence" (PDF). AI Magazine. Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence: 105–114. arXiv:1602.03506. Bibcode:2016arXiv160203506R. Archived (PDF) from the original on 4 August 2019. Retrieved 10 August 2019., cited in "AI Open Letter - Future of Life Institute". Future of Life Institute. January 2015. Archived from the original on 10 August 2019. Retrieved 9 August 2019.
  21. ^ Dowd, Maureen (April 2017). "Elon Musk's Billion-Dollar Crusade to Stop the A.I. Apocalypse". The Hive. Archived from the original on 26 July 2018. Retrieved 27 November 2017.
  22. ^ "AlphaGo Zero: Starting from scratch". www.deepmind.com. 18 October 2017. Retrieved 28 July 2023.


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