The gateway belief model (GBM) suggests that public perception of the degree of expert or scientific consensus on an issue functions as a so-called "gateway" cognition.[1][2] Perception of scientific agreement is suggested to be a key step towards acceptance of related beliefs.[3] Increasing the perception that there is normative agreement within the scientific community can increase individual support for an issue. A perception of disagreement may decrease support for an issue.[1][2]
Public opinion research has shown a "consensus gap" between the beliefs of the general public and the scientific community on a number of issues including climate change, vaccines, evolution, gun control, and GMO's.[4][5] The general public is assumed to underestimate the degree of agreement among scientists on established facts relating to these issues.[1]
According to the gateway belief model, views can be influenced by presenting information about the scientific consensus on a subject. Communicating accurate information about the scientific consensus on a topic reduces perceptions that there is disagreement within the scientific community. Some studies show a causal connection between changes in perceived consensus and subsequent attitudes on issues.[1][2] In the case of climate change, perceptions of expert agreement are considered a precursor to related beliefs about whether and why climate change is happening.[2]: 130 In the case of COVID-19, perception of scientific consensus predicted personal attitudes and support for mitigation policies.[6]
The gateway belief model also implies that organized disinformation campaigns may be able to deliberately undermine public support for an issue by suggesting a lack of scientific consensus or amplifying opinions that disagree with the scientific consensus.[7] Undermining scientific consensus is therefore a frequent disinformation tactic.[8]
Koehler
was invoked but never defined (see the help page).