Higher education bubble in the United States

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There is concern that the possible higher education bubble in the United States could have negative repercussions in the broader economy. Although college tuition payments are rising, the supply of college graduates in many fields of study is exceeding the demand for their skills, which aggravates graduate unemployment and underemployment while increasing the burden of student loan defaults on financial institutions and taxpayers.[1][2][3] Moreover, the higher education bubble might be even more serious than load of student debts.[4] Without safeguards in place for funding and loans, the government risks creating a moral hazard in which schools charge students expensive tuition fees without offering them marketable skills in return.[5][6] The claim has generally been used to justify cuts to public higher education spending, tax cuts, or a shift of government spending towards law enforcement and national security.[7][8][9][10] There is a further concern that having an excess supply of college graduates exacerbates political instability,[11][12][13] historically linked to having a bulge in the number of young degree holders.[14][15][16]

Some economists reject the notion of a higher education bubble, noting that the returns on higher education vastly outweigh the cost,[17][18][19][20] while others believe that the number of institutions of higher education in the United States will fall in the 2020s and beyond, citing reasons of demographic decline, poor outcomes, economic problems, and changing public interests and attitudes.[21][22][23][24][25] According to the U.S. Department of Education, by the late 2010s, people with technical or vocational trainings are slightly more likely to be employed than those with a bachelor's degree and significantly more likely to be employed in their fields of specialty. The United States currently suffers from a shortage of skilled tradespeople.[26][27]

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis noted in 2019 that investment in higher education has reached a point of diminishing marginal returns.[28] Undergraduate and graduate enrollments have both been in decline,[29][30] while trade schools continue to attract growing numbers of students.[31][32] White men are a major group opting for alternatives to higher education.[22][33] Many faculty members are leaving academia,[34] especially those from the humanities.[35] At the same time, university graduates are likely to regret having studied the humanities and liberal arts.[36][37] While academics maintain that certain subjects are worth studying for their own sake, students are more concerned with increasing their earning potential.[38][39] So far this century, numerous institutions of higher learning have permanently closed,[40] especially rural liberal arts colleges,[41] community colleges,[42] and for-profit institutions.[43][44]

It is possible that the bubble will not burst, but rather deflate.[43]

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  2. ^ Barshay, Jill (August 4, 2014). "Reflections on the underemployment of college graduates". Hechniger Report. Teachers College at Columbia University. Retrieved March 30, 2015.
  3. ^ Coates, Ken; Morrison, Bill (2016), Dream Factories: Why Universities Won't Solve the Youth Jobs Crisis, Toronto: Dundurn Press, p. 232, ISBN 978-1459733770, archived from the original on June 1, 2016, retrieved June 9, 2016
  4. ^ Epperson, Sharon (September 11, 2014). "A higher-ed bubble even bigger than student loans". CNBC. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  5. ^ "The university lottery". The Economist. April 5, 2023. Archived from the original on April 5, 2023. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  6. ^ Burke, Lilah (January 21, 2023). "What's a college degree worth? States start to demand colleges share the data". Hechinger Report. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  7. ^ "U.S. Republican budget cuts social spending, boosts military". Reuters. March 17, 2015. Retrieved May 9, 2016.
  8. ^ "Should the U.S. cut spending on education (yes) or the military (no)?". www.debate.org. Retrieved May 9, 2016.
  9. ^ "Gov. Sam Brownback cuts higher education as Kansas tax receipts fall $53 million short". kansascity. Retrieved May 9, 2016.
  10. ^ "Changing Priorities: State Criminal Justice Reforms and Investments in Education | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities". www.cbpp.org. Retrieved May 9, 2016.
  11. ^ Turchin, Peter (December 27, 2016). "Social Instability Lies Ahead, Researcher Says". UConn Today. Retrieved September 16, 2022.
  12. ^ Smith, Noah (January 4, 2021). "America Is Pumping Out Too Many Ph.D.s". Bloomberg. Archived from the original on January 13, 2021. Retrieved September 23, 2021.
  13. ^ Packer, George (June 8, 2021). "How America Fractured Into Four Parts". The Atlantic. Archived from the original on June 8, 2021. Retrieved June 10, 2021.
  14. ^ Hobsbawm, Eric (1996). "Chapter Ten: Social Revolution 1945-1990". The Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century 1914–1991. Abacus. ISBN 9780349106717.
  15. ^ Gaddis, John Lewis (2005). "IV: The Emergence of Autonomy". The Cold War: A New History. Penguin Books. ISBN 978-0143038276.
  16. ^ Suri, Jeremi (February 2009). "The Rise and Fall of an International Counterculture, 1960-1975". American Historical Review. 114 (1): 45–68. doi:10.1086/ahr.114.1.45. JSTOR 30223643.
  17. ^ Michael Simkovic, Risk-Based Student Loans (2012)
  18. ^ Thomas Lemieux, Postsecondary Education And Increasing Wage Inequality, 96 AM. ECON. REVIEW 195 (2006)
  19. ^ Sandy Baum and Michael McPherson, Job-Skill Trends and the College-Wage Premium, Chronicle of Higher Education, Sept. 21, 2010
  20. ^ Singletary, Michelle (January 11, 2020). "Is college still worth it? Read this study". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 12, 2020.
  21. ^ "Expert predicts 25% of colleges will "fail" in the next 20 years". CBS News. August 31, 2019. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  22. ^ a b Belkin, Douglas (September 6, 2021). "A Generation of American Men Give Up on College: 'I Just Feel Lost'". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 11, 2021.
  23. ^ Cohn, Scott (December 3, 2019). "The other college debt crisis: Schools are going broke". Education. CNBC. Retrieved January 29, 2020.
  24. ^ Solman, Paul (March 28, 2019). "Anxious about debt, Generation Z makes college choice a financial one". PBS Newshour. Retrieved May 12, 2019.
  25. ^ Brenan, Megan (July 11, 2023). "Americans' Confidence in Higher Education Down Sharply". Gallup. Retrieved July 12, 2023.
  26. ^ Krupnick, Matt (August 29, 2017). "After decades of pushing bachelor's degrees, U.S. needs more tradespeople". PBS Newshour. Retrieved May 17, 2019.
  27. ^ Gross, Ashley; Marcus, Jon (April 25, 2018). "High-Paying Trade Jobs Sit Empty, While High School Grads Line Up For University". National Public Radio. Retrieved October 14, 2024.
  28. ^ Cite error: The named reference Emmons Kent & Ricketts 2019 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  29. ^ Nadworny, Elissa (May 25, 2018). "Why Is Undergraduate College Enrollment Declining?". Education. NPR. Retrieved November 28, 2019.
  30. ^ Moody, Josh (May 26, 2022). "A 5th Straight Semester of Enrollment Declines". Inside Higher Education. Archived from the original on August 17, 2022. Retrieved August 21, 2022.
  31. ^ Steinberg, Anya; Nadworny, Elissa (March 28, 2022). "Community college enrollment is down, but skilled-trades programs are booming". NPR. Retrieved May 2, 2023.
  32. ^ Sanchez, Olivia (April 17, 2023). "While some students skip college, trade programs are booming". Associated Press. Retrieved April 17, 2023.
  33. ^ Cite error: The named reference :29 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  34. ^ Flaherty, Colleen (July 5, 2022). "Calling It Quits". Inside Higher Education. Archived from the original on July 5, 2022. Retrieved August 21, 2022.
  35. ^ Hamilton-Honey, Emily (August 10, 2022). "The Humanities' Scholarly Infrastructure Isn't in Disarray – It's Disappearing". Inside Higher Education. Archived from the original on August 21, 2022. Retrieved August 21, 2022.
  36. ^ Cite error: The named reference :6 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  37. ^ Van Dam, Andrew (September 2, 2022). "The most-regretted (and lowest-paying) college majors". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on September 16, 2022. Retrieved February 5, 2023.
  38. ^ Marcus, Jon (March 7, 2013). "In era of high costs, humanities come under attack". Hechinger Report. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  39. ^ "Was your degree really worth it?". The Economist. April 3, 2023. Archived from the original on April 8, 2023. Retrieved April 14, 2023.
  40. ^ Cite error: The named reference :5 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  41. ^ Surjadi, Milla (August 19, 2024). "A New Problem With Four-Year Degrees: The Surge in College Closures". The Wall Street Journal. Archived from the original on August 26, 2024. Retrieved September 29, 2024.
  42. ^ Cite error: The named reference :9 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  43. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference :19 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  44. ^ Cite error: The named reference :20 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).