The history of the scientific discovery of climate change began in the early 19th century when ice ages and other natural changes in paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural greenhouse effect was first identified. In the late 19th century, scientists first argued that human emissions of greenhouse gases could change Earth's energy balance and climate. The existence of the greenhouse effect, while not named as such, was proposed as early as 1824 by Joseph Fourier.[2] The argument and the evidence were further strengthened by Claude Pouillet in 1827 and 1838. In 1856 Eunice Newton Foote demonstrated that the warming effect of the sun is greater for air with water vapour than for dry air, and the effect is even greater with carbon dioxide.[3][4]
John Tyndall was the first to measure the infrared absorption and emission of various gases and vapors. From 1859 onwards, he showed that the effect was due to a very small proportion of the atmosphere, with the main gases having no effect, and was largely due to water vapor, though small percentages of hydrocarbons and carbon dioxide had a significant effect.[5] The effect was more fully quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896, who made the first quantitative prediction of global warming due to a hypothetical doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
In the 1960s, the evidence for the warming effect of carbon dioxide gas became increasingly convincing. Scientists also discovered that human activities that generated atmospheric aerosols (e.g., "air pollution") could have cooling effects as well (later referred to as global dimming). Other theories for the causes of global warming were also proposed, involving forces from volcanism to solar variation. During the 1970s, scientific understanding of global warming greatly increased.
By the 1990s, as the result of improving the accuracy of computer models and observational work confirming the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, a consensus position formed. It became clear that greenhouse gases were deeply involved in most climate changes and human-caused emissions were bringing discernible global warming.
Since the 1990s, scientific research on climate change has included multiple disciplines and has expanded. Research has expanded the understanding of causal relations, links with historic data, and abilities to measure and model climate change. Research during this period has been summarized in the Assessment Reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with the First Assessment Report coming out in 1990.
- ^ Tyndall, John (1 January 1861). "The Bakerian Lecture.—On the absorption and radiation of heat by gases and vapours, and on the physical connexion of radiation, absorption, and conduction". Philosophical Transactions. 151. The Royal Society Publishing: 37. doi:10.1098/rstl.1861.0001. ISSN 2053-9223.
- ^ Fourier, J. (1824). "Remarques Generales sur les Temperatures Du Globe Terrestre et des Espaces Planetaires". Annales de Chimie et de Physique (in French). 27: 136–167. Archived from the original on 2 August 2020. Retrieved 8 June 2020.
- ^ Foote, Eunice (November 1856). Circumstances affecting the Heat of the Sun's Rays. Vol. 22. pp. 382–383. Archived from the original on 30 September 2020. Retrieved 31 January 2016.
{{cite book}}:|work=ignored (help) - ^ Huddleston, Amara (17 July 2019). "Happy 200th birthday to Eunice Foote, hidden climate science pioneer". NOAA Climate.gov. Archived from the original on 30 September 2020. Retrieved 8 October 2019.
- ^ John Tyndall, Heat considered as a Mode of Motion (500 pages; year 1863, 1873)