Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID model

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID model (IHME model), also called the "Chris Murray model" after the IHME director, is an epidemiological model for COVID-19 pandemic developed at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle. In April 2020, the model was called "perhaps the most widely cited coronavirus model" by The Colorado Sun[1] and "America's most influential coronavirus model" by The Washington Post.[2] Its projections were cited during White House briefings in March–April 2020.[3]

Critics say the model uses flawed methods and should not guide U.S. policies.[4][5] For example, an inappropriate distributional assumption resulted in the model predicting Covid fatalities in New York would certainly fall to zero in New York by late Spring, 2020.[citation needed]

In late April 2020, the IHME published estimates of when states could relax social distancing measures and begin to reopen their economies in relative safety, using data from the model.[6]

  1. ^ Ingold, John (April 7, 2020). "Three coronavirus models have very different takes on how Colorado's outbreak will develop". The Colorado Sun.
  2. ^ Wan, William; Johnson, Carolyn Y. (April 8, 2020). "America's most influential coronavirus model just revised its estimates downward. But not every model agrees". The Washington Post.
  3. ^ McMinn, Sean (April 7, 2020). "Coronavirus State-By-State Projections: When Will Each State Peak?". NPR.
  4. ^ "Influential COVID-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say". Stat News. April 17, 2020. Retrieved May 1, 2020.
  5. ^ Jewell, Nicholas P.; Lewnard, Joseph A.; Jewell, Britta L. (2020-04-14). "Caution Warranted: Using the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model for Predicting the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic". Annals of Internal Medicine. 173 (3): 226–227. doi:10.7326/M20-1565. PMC 7197035. PMID 32289150. Archived from the original on 2020-05-06. Retrieved 2020-04-28.
  6. ^ "Chart: When will each state reopen? IHME projection gives dates". The Mercury News. San Jose, California. April 22, 2020.