In the design of experiments in statistics, the lady tasting tea is a randomized experiment devised by Ronald Fisher and reported in his book The Design of Experiments (1935).[1] The experiment is the original exposition of Fisher's notion of a null hypothesis, which is "never proved or established, but is possibly disproved, in the course of experimentation".[2][3]
The example is loosely based on an event in Fisher's life. The woman in question, phycologist Muriel Bristol, claimed to be able to tell whether the tea or the milk was added first to a cup. Her future husband, William Roach, suggested that Fisher give her eight cups, four of each variety, in random order.[4] One could then ask what the probability was for her getting the specific number of cups she identified correct (in fact all eight), but just by chance.
Fisher's description is less than 10 pages in length and is notable for its simplicity and completeness regarding terminology, calculations and design of the experiment.[5] The test used was Fisher's exact test.
- ^ Fisher 1971, II. The Principles of Experimentation, Illustrated by a Psycho-physical Experiment.
- ^ Fisher 1971, Chapter II. The Principles of Experimentation, Illustrated by a Psycho-physical Experiment, Section 8. The Null Hypothesis.
- ^ OED quote: 1935 R. A. Fisher, The Design of Experiments ii. 19, "We may speak of this hypothesis as the 'null hypothesis' [...] the null hypothesis is never proved or established, but is possibly disproved, in the course of experimentation."
- ^ Sturdivant, Rod. "Lady Tasting Tea" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 10 July 2004. Retrieved 2 September 2018.
- ^ Fisher, Sir Ronald A. (1956) [The Design of Experiments (1935)]. "Mathematics of a Lady Tasting Tea". In James Roy Newman (ed.). The World of Mathematics, volume 3. Courier Dover Publications. ISBN 978-0-486-41151-4.