Lindy effect

The Lindy effect (also known as Lindy's law[1]) is a theorized phenomenon by which the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age. Thus, the Lindy effect proposes the longer a period something has survived to exist or be used in the present, the longer its remaining life expectancy. Longevity implies a resistance to change, obsolescence, or competition, and greater odds of continued existence into the future.[2] Where the Lindy effect applies, mortality rate decreases with time. Mathematically, the Lindy effect corresponds to lifetimes following a Pareto probability distribution.

The concept is named after Lindy's delicatessen in New York City, where the concept was informally theorized by comedians.[3][4] The Lindy effect has subsequently been theorized by mathematicians and statisticians.[5][6][1] Nassim Nicholas Taleb has expressed the Lindy effect in terms of "distance from an absorbing barrier".[7]

The Lindy effect applies to "non-perishable" items, those that do not have an "unavoidable expiration date".[2] For example, human beings are perishable: the life expectancy at birth in developed countries is about 80 years. So the Lindy effect does not apply to individual human lifespan: all else being equal, it is less likely for a 10-year-old human to die within the next year than for a 100-year-old, while the Lindy effect would predict the opposite.

  1. ^ a b Eliazar, Iddo (November 2017). "Lindy's Law". Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications. 486: 797–805. Bibcode:2017PhyA..486..797E. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2017.05.077. S2CID 125349686.
  2. ^ a b Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2012). Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. Random House. p. 514. ISBN 9781400067824.
  3. ^ Cite error: The named reference NYTimesLindy was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  4. ^ Cite error: The named reference LindysLaw1964 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  5. ^ Cite error: The named reference Mandelbrot1982 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  6. ^ Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House. p. 159. ISBN 9781588365835. Like many biological variables, life expectancy.
  7. ^ Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. "Lindy as a Distance from an Absorbing Barrier (Chapter from SILENT RISK)".