Neglect of probability

The neglect of probability, a type of cognitive bias, is the tendency to disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty and is one simple way in which people regularly violate the normative rules for decision making. Small risks are typically either neglected entirely or hugely overrated. The continuum between the extremes is ignored. The term probability neglect was coined by Cass Sunstein.[1]

There are many related ways in which people violate the normative rules of decision making with regard to probability including the hindsight bias, the neglect of prior base rates effect, and the gambler's fallacy. However, this bias is different, in that, rather than incorrectly using probability, the actor disregards it.

"We have no intuitive grasp of risk and thus distinguish poorly among different threats," Dobelli has written. "The more serious the threat and the more emotional the topic (such as radioactivity), the less reassuring a reduction in risk seems to us."[2]

  1. ^ Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking Fast and Slow Archived 2014-07-31 at the Wayback Machine, Allen Lane 2011, p. 143 f.
  2. ^ Cite error: The named reference Meaning Ring was invoked but never defined (see the help page).