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A nonpartisan primary, top-two primary,[1] or jungle primary[2] is a primary election in which all candidates for the same elected office run against each other at once, regardless of political party. This distinguishes them from partisan elections, which are segregated by political party. This is a two-round system (with minor differences from others in the dates of the elections and that the second election is always held even if one candidate gets more than 50% in the first round).
Advocates claim the system will elect more moderate candidates, as members of a minority party could vote for a more moderate candidate from the majority party,[3][4][5] with some political scientists expressing similar views. However, empirical research on the system have found no effect on candidate moderation[6] or turnout among independent voters.[4][7]
Such primaries are also susceptible to vote-splitting: the more candidates from the same party run in the primary, the more likely that party is to lose.[3][8][9]
The top-two system is used for all primaries in Washington and California (except presidential primaries). Alaska has used a highly-similar top-four primary with a ranked-choice runoff since the 2022 House special election.
- ^ Francis, Mary (2020-12-28). "A Top-Four Primary Would Give Voters More Choices". Sightline Institute. Retrieved 2021-03-31.
- ^ Joe Klein. "California’s New Jungle Primary System". Time. 15 May 2014. Retrieved 5 November 2014.
- ^ a b Nagourney, Adam (24 May 2018). "Here's How California's 'Jungle Primary' System Works". The New York Times. Retrieved 2018-06-23.
The theory was that candidates would be forced to moderate their appeals to win a broader section of the electorate. ... leading to a November ballot between two candidates from the same party. That would happen if multiple candidates from the same party crowded the ballot, canceling each other out as they divided a finite group of voters
- ^ a b Kousser, Thad. "California's jungle primary sets up polarized governor's race for November". The Conversation. Retrieved 2018-06-23.
The idea was that by opening up primaries to all voters, regardless of party, a flood of new centrist voters would arrive. That would give moderate candidates a route to victory .. Candidates did not represent voters any better after the reforms, taking positions just as polarized as they did before the top two. We detected no shift toward the ideological middle.
- ^ "The Primary: What Is It Good For?". The Center for Election Science. 2014-08-21. Retrieved 2018-06-23.
This approach aims to soften how partisan the winners are. ... support for the middle is divided among three candidates (we call this vote-splitting). Plurality's winners are largely determined not by the merit of the candidates, but rather by who else is running.
- ^ Kousser, Thad; Phillips, Justin; Shor, Boris (2016). "Reform and Representation: A New Method Applied to Recent Electoral Changes*". Political Science Research and Methods. 6 (4): 809–827. doi:10.1017/psrm.2016.43. ISSN 2049-8470. SSRN 2260083.
neither the Citizens Redistricting Commission nor the top-two primary immediately halted the continuing partisan polarization of California's elected lawmakers or their drift away from the average voter
- ^ Hill, Seth J.; Kousser, Thad (2015-10-17). "Turning Out Unlikely Voters? A Field Experiment in the Top-Two Primary". Political Behavior. 38 (2): 413–432. doi:10.1007/s11109-015-9319-3. ISSN 0190-9320. S2CID 54541384.
Two groups that were predicted by advocates to increase their participation in response to this reform—those registered with third parties or no-party-preference registrants (independents) who were not guaranteed a vote in any party's primary before the move to the top-two—also show declines in turnout
- ^ "Democratic dread: Party tries to keep California's odd election rules from denying them House". Ventura County Star. Retrieved 2018-06-23.
If too many candidates from one edge of the political spectrum enter the same race without a clear frontrunner, they risk splitting their side of the vote, canceling each other out, and handing the top two spots to the opposition party.
- ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (2018-06-05). "California's Jungle Primary Might Screw Over Both Parties". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2018-06-23.
The two Republicans might get 25 percent of the vote apiece, while the Democrats each receive 5 percent.