Olduvai theory

This article has multiple issues. Please help improve it or discuss these issues on the talk page. (Learn how and when to remove these messages) This article may require cleanup to meet Wikipedia's quality standards. The specific problem is: article is written as an essay, amalgamating Duncan's primary source claims and original research in citing secondary sources to support the claim rather than secondary sources that discuss Duncan himself and his theories. Please help improve this article if you can. (June 2022) (Learn how and when to remove this message) Some of this article's listed sources may not be reliable. Please help improve this article by looking for better, more reliable sources. Unreliable citations may be challenged and removed. (June 2022) (Learn how and when to remove this message) (Learn how and when to remove this message)

The Olduvai Theory posits that industrial civilization, as it currently exists, will have a maximum duration of approximately one hundred years, beginning in 1930. According to this theory, from 2030 onward, humanity is expected to gradually regress to levels of civilization comparable to those experienced in the past, ultimately culminating in a hunting-based culture by around 3000 AD.^[1] This regression is likened to the conditions present three million years ago when the Oldowan industry developed, hence the name of the theory.^{[2][note 1]} Richard C. Duncan, the theory's proponent, formulated it based on his expertise in energy sources and his interest in archaeology.

Originally proposed in 1989 under the name "pulse-transient theory",^[3] the concept was rebranded in 1996 to its current name, inspired by the renowned archaeological site of Olduvai Gorge, although the theory itself does not rely on data from that location.^[1] Since the initial publication, Duncan has released multiple versions of the theory, each with varying parameters and predictions, which has generated significant criticism and controversy.

In 2007, Duncan defined five postulates based on the observation of data:

1. The world energy production per capita.
2. Earth carrying capacity.
3. The return to the use of coal as a primary source and the peak oil production.
4. Migratory movements.
5. The stages of energy utilization in the United States.^[2]

In 2009, he published an updated version that reiterated the postulate regarding world energy consumption per capita, expanding the comparison from solely the United States to include OECD countries, while placing less emphasis on the roles of emerging economies.^[4]

Scholars such as Pedro A. Prieto have used the Olduvai Theory and other models of catastrophic collapse to formulate various scenarios with differing timelines and societal outcomes.^[5][6] In contrast, figures like Richard Heinberg and Jared Diamond also acknowledge the possibility of social collapse but envision more optimistic scenarios wherein degrowth can occur alongside continued welfare.^[7][8][6]

Criticism of the Olduvai Theory has focused on its framing of migratory movements and the ideological stance of its publisher, Social Contract Press, known for advocating anti-immigration measures and population control.^[9][10] Various critiques challenge the theoretical foundations and assert that alternative perspectives, such as those of Cornucopians,^[11] proponents of resource-based economies,^[12] and environmentalist positions, do not support the claims made by the Olduvai Theory.

Cite error: There are <ref group=note> tags on this page, but the references will not show without a {{reflist|group=note}} template (see the help page).