Operation Yellowhammer

For other uses, see Yellowhammer (disambiguation).

This article is about a plan for the possibility that the UK might have left the EU without concluding any withdrawal agreement: this did not happen. For the subsequent negotiations on a UK/EU trading relationship after Brexit (which may end without a deal), see Trade negotiation between the UK and the EU.

Operation Yellowhammer was the codename used by the British HM Treasury for cross-government civil contingency planning for the possibility of Brexit without a withdrawal agreement – a no-deal Brexit.[1][2][3] Had the UK and EU failed to conclude such an agreement, the UK's unilateral departure from the EU could have disrupted, for an unknown duration, many aspects of the relationship between the UK and European Union, including financial transfers, movement of people, trade, customs and other regulations.[4] Operation Yellowhammer was intended to mitigate, within the UK, some of the effects of this disruption,[2] and was expected to run for approximately three months.[5] It was developed by the Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS), a department of the Cabinet Office responsible for emergency planning.

In early August 2019, after Boris Johnson had become Prime Minister, the Cabinet Office "was not able to confirm" that the Operation Yellowhammer plan remained in place,[6] although a Yellowhammer document from earlier that month was leaked in mid-August to The Sunday Times journalist Rosamund Urwin[7] and continues to be updated.[8]

On 3 September 2019, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove, whose responsibilities included preparations for a no-deal Brexit, said in the House of Commons: "Operation Yellowhammer assumptions are not a prediction of what is likely to happen, they are not a best-case scenario or a list of probable outcomes, they are projections of what may happen in a worst-case scenario."[9] An otherwise unchanged version of Yellowhammer leaked earlier to The Times was titled "base case" scenario rather than the "reasonable worst case" scenario of the officially published document; a copy given to the Scottish government was titled "base scenario".[10][11]

The Sunday Times reported that Operation Yellowhammer was one of three scenarios being studied, the other two were Operation Kingfisher, involving a support package for distressed British businesses, and Operation Black Swan, a disaster scenario.[12] Michael Gove characterised the report as inaccurate.[13]

  1. ^ Cite error: The named reference Ind20180906 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  2. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference G20190320 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  3. ^ "MoD hosts no-deal planning in bunker". BBC News. 21 March 2019. Retrieved 22 March 2019.
  4. ^ Morris, Chris (14 October 2017). "Brexit: What would 'no deal' look like?". BBC. Archived from the original on 24 October 2018. Retrieved 6 September 2018.
  5. ^ Cite error: The named reference codoc was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  6. ^ Schraer, Rachel; Edgington, Tom (6 August 2019). "No-deal Brexit: What is the UK government doing to prepare?". BBC. Archived from the original on 11 August 2019. Retrieved 15 August 2019.
  7. ^ Rosamund Urwin and Caroline Wheeler (18 August 2019). "Operation Chaos: Whitehall's secret no‑deal Brexit preparations leaked The Sunday Times obtains the government's classified 'Yellowhammer' report in full". The Sunday Times. Retrieved 18 August 2019.
  8. ^ Ailbhe Rea (19 August 2019). "The government just emailed confidential Brexit information to the wrong person". New Statesman. Retrieved 20 August 2019.
  9. ^ "Emergency debate to block no deal rages in the Commons after Johnson loses majority". ITV News. 3 September 2019. Retrieved 4 September 2019.
  10. ^ Stewart, Heather (12 September 2019). "Brexit: no-deal chaos fears as ministers forced to publish secret papers". The Guardian. Retrieved 12 September 2019.
  11. ^ "First Minister's Questions LIVE: Nicola Sturgeon faces questions over Edinburgh Sick Kids and Yellowhammer".
  12. ^ Wheeler, Caroline; Urwin, Rosamund (18 August 2019). "'This is not Project Fear — it's what we face after no-deal Brexit'". The Sunday Times. ISSN 0956-1382. Retrieved 11 September 2019.
  13. ^ Doherty, Jennifer (18 August 2019). "Brexit Could Plunge U.K. Into Economic Chaos: Leaked 'Operation Yellowhammer' Government Documents Reveal 'Worst Case Scenario'". Newsweek. Retrieved 12 September 2019.