Predictive probability of success

Predictive probability of success (PPOS) is a statistics concept commonly used in the pharmaceutical industry including by health authorities to support decision making. In clinical trials, PPOS is the probability of observing a success in the future based on existing data. It is one type of probability of success. A Bayesian means by which the PPOS can be determined is through integrating the data's likelihood over possible future responses (posterior distribution).[1]

  1. ^ Saville, Benjamin R.; Connor, Jason T.; Ayers, Gregory D.; Alvarez, JoAnn (2014-08-01). "The utility of Bayesian predictive probabilities for interim monitoring of clinical trials". Clinical Trials. 11 (4): 485–493. doi:10.1177/1740774514531352. ISSN 1740-7745. PMC 4247348. PMID 24872363.