Prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Not to be confused with Euromaidan, the prelude to the initial phase of the Russo-Ukrainian War from 2013–2014.
"2021–2022 Russo-Ukrainian crisis" redirects here. For the overall war, see Russo-Ukrainian War.

Prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Part of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Russian military build-up around Ukraine as of 3 December 2021
DateInitial: 3 March 2021 (2021-03-03) – 30 April 2021 (2021-04-30)
(1 month, 3 weeks and 6 days)
Renewed: 26 October 2021 (2021-10-26) – 24 February 2022 (2022-02-24)
(3 months, 4 weeks and 1 day)
Location
Ukraine, Russia, Belarus
Result

Escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war

  • Russian forces openly cross the Ukrainian border into territory occupied by Russian-controlled separatists on 21 February 2022.[28]
  • Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022
Parties involved in the crisis
Arms suppliers:
Non-lethal military aid:
Commanders and leaders
Strength
  •  Russia:
  • 900,000 (Armed Forces)
  • 554,000 (Paramilitary)
  • 2,000,000 (Reserves)[5]
  • • including 175,000[29] to 190,000[30] at the Ukrainian border
  •  Belarus:
  • 45,350 (Armed Forces)
  • 110,000 (Paramilitary)
  • 289,500 (Reserves)[5]
  • Donetsk PR:
  • 20,000[5]
  • Luhansk PR:
  • 14,000[5]
  •  Ukraine:
  • 209,000 (Armed Forces)
  • 102,000 (Paramilitary)
  • 900,000 (Reserves)[5]

In March and April 2021, prior to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces began massing thousands of personnel and military equipment near Russia's border with Ukraine and in Crimea, representing the largest mobilisation since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.[37][38] This precipitated an international crisis due to concerns over a potential invasion. Satellite imagery showed movements of armour, missiles, and heavy weaponry towards the border.[39][40] The troops were partially withdrawn by June 2021,[41] though the infrastructure was left in place. A second build-up began in October 2021, this time with more soldiers and with deployments on new fronts; by December over 100,000 Russian troops were massed around Ukraine on three sides, including Belarus from the north and Crimea from the south.[42] Despite the Russian military build-ups, Russian officials from November 2021 to 20 February 2022 repeatedly denied that Russia had plans to invade Ukraine.[43][44]

The crisis was related to the War in Donbas, itself part of the Russo-Ukrainian War, ongoing since February 2014. Intercepted phone conversations of Sergey Glazyev, a top advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin, disclosed the specifics of the project Novorossiya to take over not just Crimea, but also the Donbas, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, which Russia apparently aimed to annex following Crimea.[45] The plan involved fomenting widespread unrest using pro-Russian agents on the ground, and then orchestrating uprisings that would announce rigged referendums about joining Russia, similar to the one that took place in Crimea on 16 March 2014. In December 2021, Russia advanced two draft treaties that contained requests for what it referred to as "security guarantees", including a legally binding promise that Ukraine would not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and a reduction in NATO troops and materiel stationed in Eastern Europe, threatening unspecified military response if those demands were not met in full. NATO rejected these requests, and the United States warned Russia of "swift and severe" economic sanctions should it further invade Ukraine.[46] The crisis was described by many commentators as one of the most intense in Europe since the Cold War.[47][48][49]

On 21 February 2022, Russia officially recognised the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, as independent states,[50] and deployed troops to Donbas, in a move interpreted as Russia's effective withdrawal from the Minsk Protocol.[51][52] The breakaway republics were recognised in the boundaries of their respective Ukrainian oblasts, although much of this territory was still held by Ukrainian government forces.[53] On 22 February, Putin declared the Minsk agreements as invalid[54] and the Federation Council unanimously authorised him to use military force in the territories.[55] On the morning of 24 February, Putin announced that Russia was initiating a "special military operation" in the Donbas, and launched a full-scale invasion into Ukraine.[56][57]

  1. ^ Захарова: РФ и Беларусь вынуждены реагировать на наращивание сил НАТО у общих границ [Zakharova: Russia and Belarus are forced to respond to the build-up of NATO forces near their common border]. Rossiyskaya Gazeta (in Russian). 20 January 2022. Archived from the original on 20 January 2022. Retrieved 20 January 2022. На брифинге Захарова подчеркнула, что на происходящее Москва и Минск вынуждены адекватно реагировать. В частности, путем совместного патрулирования воздушного пространства, регулярных совместных тренировок, а также учений. Так, уже в феврале пройдет совместное учение "Союзная решимость-2022". На территорию Беларуси уже начали прибывать подразделения из состава ВС РФ. [At the briefing, Zakharova stressed that Moscow and Minsk were forced to respond adequately to what was happening. In particular, through joint patrolling of the airspace, regular joint training, and exercises. So, in February, the joint exercise "Allied Resolve-2022" will be held. Units from the RF Armed Forces have already begun to arrive on the territory of Belarus.]
  2. ^ "South Ossetia recognises independence of Donetsk People's Republic". Information Telegraph Agency of Russia. 27 June 2014. Retrieved 31 January 2022.
  3. ^ Alec, Luhn (6 November 2014). "Ukraine's rebel 'people's republics' begin work of building new states". The Guardian. Donetsk. Retrieved 31 January 2022. The two 'people's republics' carved out over the past seven months by pro-Russia rebels have not been recognised by any countries, and a rushed vote to elect governments for them on Sunday was declared illegal by Kiev, Washington and Brussels.
  4. ^ Общая информация [General Information]. Official site of the head of the Luhansk People's Republic (in Russian). Archived from the original on 12 March 2018. Retrieved 11 March 2018. 11 июня 2014 года Луганская Народная Республика обратилась к Российской Федерации, а также к 14 другим государствам, с просьбой о признании её независимости. К настоящему моменту независимость республики признана провозглашенной Донецкой Народной Республикой и частично признанным государством Южная Осетия. [On June 11, 2014, the Luhansk People's Republic turned to the Russian Federation, as well as to 14 other states, with a request to recognize its independence. To date, the republic's independence has been recognized by the proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and the partially recognized state of South Ossetia.]
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n The military balance 2021. Abingdon, Oxon: International Institute for Strategic Studies. 2021. ISBN 978-1-032-01227-8.
  6. ^ "Ukraine receives machine guns, surveillance gear from Canada as Russian threats mount". Global News. Retrieved 19 February 2022.
  7. ^ "Canada sends non-lethal military aid to further support Ukraine". Government of Canada. 4 February 2022. Retrieved 19 February 2022.
  8. ^ The Canadian Press (14 February 2022). "Canada to give $500M loan, send $7.8M in lethal weapons to Ukraine: Trudeau". CTV News. Retrieved 16 February 2022.
  9. ^ "Шепетівський ремонтний завод" отримав партію шасі Tatra від чеської Excalibur Army для РСЗВ "Буревій" ["Shepetivka Repair Plant" received a batch of Tatra chassis from the Czech Excalibur Army for MLRS "Storm"] (in Ukrainian). Defense Express. 23 December 2021. Нові шасі від Tatra були спеціально доопрацьовані чеською Excalibur Army під вимоги ЗСУ – в рамках виконання державного оборонного замовлення. На ДП "Шепетівський ремонтний завод" прибула партія шасі Tatra для випуску нової української 220-мм реактивної системи залпового вогню "Буревій". [The new chassis from Tatra was specially modified by the Czech Excalibur Army to the requirements of the Armed Forces – as part of the state defense order. A batch of Tatra chassis has arrived at the Shepetivka Repair Plant to produce a new Ukrainian 220-mm Bureviya multiple rocket launchers.]
  10. ^ "The Czech Republic is sending thousands of artillery shells to Ukraine". Czech Daily. 27 January 2022. Retrieved 13 February 2022. ... the (Czech) government decided to donate 4,000 artillery shells to Ukraine for about CZK 37 million. Minister Černochová described it as a gesture of solidarity. Defence Minister Jana Černochová (ODS), who proposed the donation to the cabinet, sees it as a significant act of solidarity. The Czech Republic wants to use the donation to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities. The Czech Republic will send 4006 pieces of 152-millimeter artillery ammunition to Ukraine, worth CZK 36.6 million. It will be transferred through a donation agreement.
  11. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference baltic-lethal-aid was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  12. ^ "First batch of Estonia-donated Javelin missiles arrive in Ukraine". ERR News. 18 February 2022. Retrieved 18 February 2022.
  13. ^ a b "Estonia donates mobile field hospital to Ukrainian army". Ukrinform. 9 February 2022. Retrieved 12 February 2022.
  14. ^ "Latvia delivers Stinger missiles to Ukraine". LSM. 23 February 2022. Retrieved 23 February 2022.
  15. ^ "Lietuva išskraidino karinę paramą Ukrainai – siunčia "Stinger" raketas" [Lithuania has flown military support to Ukraine, sending Stinger missiles] (in Lithuanian). LRT. 13 February 2022. Retrieved 13 February 2022.
  16. ^ "UNIAN: Lithuania hands over almost 1 million pieces of ammunition to Ukraine". Kyiv Post. 12 June 2019. Retrieved 12 February 2022.
  17. ^ "Netherlands to give Ukraine sniper rifles, radars, helmets". NL Times. 18 February 2022.
  18. ^ ЗСУ передана партія бойових машин Oncilla [A batch of Oncilla combat vehicles was transferred to the Armed Forces]. Мілітарний (in Ukrainian). 27 April 2021.
  19. ^ Україна закупила в Польщі партію болгарських боєприпасів [Ukraine bought a consignment of Bulgarian ammunition in Poland]. Ukrainian Military Pages (in Ukrainian). 21 April 2021.
  20. ^ Kramer, Andrew E. (3 February 2022). "Turkey, a Sometimes-Wavering NATO Ally, Backs Ukraine". The New York Times. Retrieved 4 February 2022.
  21. ^ Brown, Larisa, ed. (18 January 2022). "British anti-tank weapons sent to defend Ukraine from Russia". The Times. Archived from the original on 18 January 2022. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
  22. ^ "US small arms and ammo arrive in Ukraine as Pentagon details troops to train country's military". CNN. 9 December 2021. Archived from the original on 9 December 2021. Retrieved 11 December 2021.
  23. ^ "Italy considers offering Ukraine aid, "non-lethal" military help". Reuters. 22 February 2022.
  24. ^ a b "Därför utbildar Sverige ukrainska säkerhetsstyrkor" [The reason Sweden trains Ukrainian security forces] (in Swedish). Swedish Armed Forces. 14 December 2021. Retrieved 20 January 2022.
  25. ^ Cite error: The named reference EU_UCPM_deployment was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  26. ^ "Киберпартизаны" заявили о взломе серверов БЖД и выставили ультиматум режиму ["Cyber partisans" announced the hacking of the BZD servers and issued an ultimatum to the regime]. Charter 97 (in Russian). 24 January 2022. Archived from the original on 25 January 2022. Retrieved 25 January 2022.
  27. ^ Білоруські "кіберпартизани" зламали сервер залізниці, щоб не пустити російські війська в країну [Belarusian "cyber partisans" hacked railway server to prevent Russian troops from entering the country]. LB.ua (in Ukrainian). 25 January 2022. Archived from the original on 25 January 2022. Retrieved 25 January 2022.
  28. ^ "Russia recognises Ukraine separatist regions". BBC News. 21 February 2022. Retrieved 21 February 2022.
  29. ^ Julian E., Barnes; Michael, Crowley; Eric, Schmitt (10 January 2022). "Russia Positioning Helicopters, in Possible Sign of Ukraine Plans". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 22 January 2022. Retrieved 20 January 2022. American officials had expected additional Russian troops to stream toward the Ukrainian border in December and early January, building toward a force of 175,000.
  30. ^ Bengali, Shashank (18 February 2022). "The U.S. says Russia's troop buildup could be as high as 190,000 in and near Ukraine". The New York Times. Retrieved 18 February 2022.
  31. ^ D'Andrea, Aaron; Connolly, Amanda; Goomansingh, Crystal (26 January 2022). "Canada will not send weapons to Ukraine, boosting cyber support and training mission". Global News. Retrieved 9 February 2022.
  32. ^ "Canada relocates military personnel out of Ukraine amid Russia threats". Reuters. 13 February 2022. Retrieved 16 February 2022.
  33. ^ Fox, Greg (10 December 2021). "165 members of Florida National Guard in Ukraine". WESH. Archived from the original on 19 January 2022. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
  34. ^ Macias, Amanda (12 February 2022). "Pentagon orders departure of U.S. troops in Ukraine as Russia crisis escalates". CNBC. Retrieved 16 February 2022.
  35. ^ Sabbagh, Dan; Skopeliti, Clea (12 February 2022). "UK troops sent to help train Ukrainian army to leave country". The Guardian. Retrieved 16 February 2022.
  36. ^ "Sveriges bidrag till Operation Unifier har lämnat Ukraina" [The Swedish contribution to Operation Unifier has left Ukraine]. Swedish Armed Forces (in Swedish). 14 February 2022. Retrieved 20 February 2022.
  37. ^ Holland, Steve; Shalal, Andrea; Landay, Jonathan (8 April 2021). Paul, Franklin; Dunham, Will (eds.). "Russian force on Ukraine border larger than any time since 2014, U.S. says". Reuters. Washington D.C.: Thomson Corporation. Retrieved 8 February 2022.
  38. ^ Kramer, Andrew E. (9 April 2021). "Russian Troop Movements and Talk of Intervention Cause Jitters in Ukraine". The New York Times. Moscow. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 8 February 2022. Russia has amassed more troops on the Ukrainian border than at any time since 2014.
  39. ^ "Satellite images show Russian military buildup along Ukraine border". Reuters. Thomson Corporation. 20 April 2021. Retrieved 19 February 2022. Photographs by Maxar Technologies
  40. ^ "Satellite Images Show Military Buildup In Russia, Ukraine". rferl.org. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. 21 April 2021. Retrieved 19 February 2022.
  41. ^ Bielieskov, Mykola (21 September 2021). "The Russian and Ukrainian Spring 2021 War Scare". Center for Strategic and International Studies. Archived from the original on 25 November 2021. Retrieved 22 January 2022. Ukrainian estimates provided to the OSCE in June 2021 show that only 12,000 Russian forces were removed from the border, and the rest remain in place.
  42. ^ Troianovski, Anton; Sanger, David E. (16 January 2022). "Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion". The New York Times. Vienna. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 27 January 2022. No one expected much progress from this past week's diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House's accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.
  43. ^ Kiely, Eugene; Farley, Robert (24 February 2022). "Russian Rhetoric Ahead of Attack Against Ukraine: Deny, Deflect, Mislead". FactCheck.org. Retrieved 27 February 2022.
  44. ^ Taylor, Adam (24 February 2022). "Russia's attack on Ukraine came after months of denials it would attack". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 24 February 2022. Retrieved 27 February 2022.
  45. ^ "Glazyev tapes debunk Russia's lies about its annexation of Crimea and undeclared war against Ukraine". Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group. Retrieved 9 May 2023.
  46. ^ Cite error: The named reference Crowley-2022-01-29 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  47. ^ Sanger, David E. (10 January 2022). "In U.S.-Russia Talks, How Far Can Putin Turn Back the Clock?". The New York Times. Washington D.C. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on 19 January 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2022. The lesson of the past year may be that while the Cold War is long over, Cold War-like behavior lives on. And in the three decades since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the tension between the world's two principal nuclear adversaries has never been worse — making the pathway to a peaceful de-escalation harder to discern.
  48. ^ Isachenkov, Vladimir (26 December 2021). "Putin to mull options if West refuses guarantees on Ukraine". AP News. Moscow: Associated Press. Archived from the original on 22 January 2022. Retrieved 22 January 2022.
  49. ^ Mark, Gongloff (13 January 2022). "Putin Launches an Unwelcome Cold War Reboot". Bloomberg News. Bloomberg L.P. Archived from the original on 21 January 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2022. This practice lost favor, perhaps not coincidentally, right around the time the Soviet Union's sphere popped like a balloon in a Chuck E. Cheese brawl. That left the United States alone with a world-sized balloon, at which point everybody agreed spheres of influence were passé. Now, with the growing shakiness of the Pax Americana as Chinese and Russian powers grow, this ugly game is rebooting yet again, Andreas warns.
  50. ^ Hernandez, Joe (22 February 2022). "Why Luhansk and Donetsk are key to understanding the latest escalation in Ukraine". NPR. Retrieved 28 February 2022.
  51. ^ Roth, Andrew; Borger, Julian (21 February 2022). "Ukraine: Putin orders troops into Donetsk and Luhansk on 'peacekeeping duties'". The Guardian. Retrieved 21 February 2022.
  52. ^ Rainford, Sarah (21 February 2022). "Russia recognizes Ukraine separatist regions as independent states". BBC. Retrieved 21 February 2022.
  53. ^ Путин: Россия признала "ДНР" и "ЛНР" в границах, закрепленных в их конституциях [Putin: Russia has recognized "DPR" and "LPR" within the boundaries enshrined in their constitutions]. Novaya Gazeta (in Russian). 22 February 2022. Retrieved 23 February 2022.
  54. ^ Минских соглашений теперь не существует, заявил Путин [Minsk agreements no longer exist, Putin says] (in Russian). RIA Novosti. 22 February 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2022.
  55. ^ Совфед дал согласие на использование ВС за пределами страны [The Federation Council agreed to the use of aircraft outside the country] (in Russian). RIA Novosti. 22 February 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2022.
  56. ^ Kirby, Jen (28 February 2022). "Putin's invasion of Ukraine, explained". Vox. Retrieved 28 February 2022.
  57. ^ "Conflict in Ukraine". Global Conflict Tracker. Council on Foreign Relations. 28 February 2022. Retrieved 28 February 2022.


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