Replacement migration

Not to be confused with white replacement migration, a white supremacist conspiracy theory.
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In demography, replacement migration is a theory of migration needed for a region to achieve a particular objective (demographic, economic or social).[1] Generally, studies using this concept have as an objective to avoid the decline of total population and the decline of the working-age population.

Often, these overall declines in the population are influenced by low fertility rates. When fertility is lower than the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman and there is a longer life expectancy, this changes the age structure over time.[2] Overall, the population will start to decline as there will not be enough children born to replace the population of people lost and the proportion of older individuals composing the population will continue to increase. One concern from this is that the age-dependency ratio will be affected, as the working-age population will have more dependents in older age to support. Therefore, replacement migration has been a proposed mechanism to try and combat declining population size, aging populations and help replenish the number of people in the working age groups.

Projections calculating migration replacement are primarily demographics and theoretical exercises and not forecasts or recommendations. However, this demographic information can help prompt governments to facilitate replacement migration by making policy changes.[3]

The concept of replacement migration may vary according to the study and depending on the context in which it applies. It may be a number of annual immigrants,[4] a net migration,[5] an additional number of immigrants compared to a reference scenario,[6] etc.

  1. ^ Marois, Guillaume (2008). "La « migration de remplacement » : un exercice méthodologique en rapport aux enjeux démographiques du Québec" (PDF). Cahier québécois de démographie. 37 (2): 237–261. doi:10.7202/038132ar.
  2. ^ United Nations Secretariat. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division (2001). "Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?" (PDF). ESA/P/WP. United Nations. p. 177. Retrieved 2023-04-19.
  3. ^ Bijak, Jakub (2008). "Replacement Migration Revisited: Simulations of the Effects of Selected Population and Labor Market Strategies for the Aging Europe, 2002-2052". Population Research and Policy Review. 27 (3): 321–342. doi:10.1007/s11113-007-9065-2. JSTOR 41217953. S2CID 154813850.
  4. ^ Marois, Guillaume (2007). "Démystification de l'impact de l'immigration sur la démographie québécoise : des résultats surprenants" (PDF). Mémoire déposé lors de la Consultation publique en vue de la planification triennale des niveaux d’immigration pour la période 2008–2010. Commission de la culture, Gouvernement du Québec. p. 15. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-07-06. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
  5. ^ "Replacement Migration". Archived from the original on 2017-05-30. Retrieved 2017-06-29.
  6. ^ Bijak, Jakub (2005). Replacement Migration Revisited: Migratory Flows, Population and Labour Force in Europe, 2002–2052 (PDF). UN ECE Work Session on Demographic Projections. Vienne. p. 37.