Three Horizons (or 3H) is a framework and method for futures studies and practice, created by Anthony Hodgson, Andrew Curry, Graham Leicester, Bill Sharpe, Andrew Lyon and Ioan Fazey.[1] It presents a picture of change in a given system as an interplay of three horizons.[1] Horizon 1 (H1) is the currently dominant but failing system that declines over time as it loses its fit with a changing environment.[1] Horizon 3 (H3) is the envisioned desired future that is aligned to the changing environment.[1] Horizon 2 (H2) is a turbulent intermediate space of innovations, some of which are 'captured' by H1, prop it up and extend its lifespan (so-called 'H2-' innovations), and some of which are genuinely disruptive and create space for a radically different kind of system to emerge ('H2+' innovations).[1] The framework also illustrates the existence of 'pockets of the future in the present': niche examples of actors and systems working in a radically different way to the mainstream, which already embody H3 values.[1] In addition, some aspects of H1 will remain valuable in the desired future.[1]
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3H is commonly used in workshop settings to help organisations and actors create strategies for transformational change (i.e. fundamental change that shifts underlying values and worldviews, rather than more superficial kinds of change), often in order to adapt to wider trends and crises.[1]