Undercounting of COVID-19 pandemic deaths by country

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Undercounting of COVID-19 pandemic deaths has been witnessed around the world.[1][2][3] Global mortality excess estimates by the World Health Organization are significantly different from official figures, pointing to undercounting– "while 1,813,188 COVID-19 deaths were reported in 2020... WHO estimates suggest an excess mortality of at least 3,000,000."[4][5][6] The global average for underreporting COVID-19 deaths in cities is 30%.[7] The aim of arriving at a truer death count is ultimately linked to improving national and international abilities and responses to fighting the virus.[8][9] Undercounting can cause a number of problems such as delay in vaccines to priority populations.[10]

Lack of resources with regard to testing, differences in how COVID-19 cases and deaths are counted, and other inefficiencies in data collection and updation largely explain this undercounting.[11][12][13] In Africa, eight of the 56 sovereign states compulsorily register deaths.[14] In Europe, apart from two countries, all have a universal death registration system.[14] In India 70% of the deaths are registered while medical certificates are given to a minority of these; in 2019 registration of deaths varied significantly from state to state (37% to 100%).[15][16]

  1. ^ "Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries". The Economist. 11 May 2021. Retrieved 2021-05-30.
  2. ^ Wu, Jin; McCann, Allison; Katz, Josh; Peltier, Elian; Singh, Karan Deep (9 February 2021). "The Pandemic's Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2021-05-30.
  3. ^ "Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19". Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. 2021-04-22. Archived from the original on 21 May 2021. Retrieved 2021-05-28.
  4. ^ "The true death toll of COVID-19: estimating global excess mortality". www.who.int. World Health Organization. Archived from the original on 21 May 2021. Retrieved 2021-05-28.
  5. ^ "COVID-19 death tolls are likely a "significant undercount", WHO says". SWI swissinfo.ch. Reuters. 21 May 2021. Archived from the original on 2021-06-02. Retrieved 2021-05-31.
  6. ^ "Global COVID death toll might be as high as 8m, says WHO". Al Jazeera. 21 May 2021. Retrieved 2021-05-30.
  7. ^ Cohen, Jon (2021-04-30). "Will India's devastating COVID-19 surge provide data that clear up its death 'paradox'?". Science. doi:10.1126/science.abj2647. S2CID 242571170. [...] 30% underreporting of COVID-19 deaths in these cities—the worldwide average...
  8. ^ Guidance for appropriate recording of COVID-19 related deaths in India. National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research, Indian Council of Medical Research. Archived on 10 May 2021 via— archive.org. "Patterns of disease and patterns of death can come from only standardised recording of clinical disease history and cause of death, and therefore epidemiological surveillance of disease and death are important. Robust data is needed from every district and state in India to measure the public health impact of COVID 19 and to plan for timely health interventions and protect communities."
  9. ^ Banaji, Murad (2021-05-09). "The Importance of Knowing How Many Have Died of COVID-19 in India". The Wire Science. Retrieved 2021-05-27. Arriving at credible estimates of the epidemic's true toll could be key to mitigating further disaster.
  10. ^ Kaneda, Toshiko; Ashford, Lori S. (12 May 2021). "COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa Appear Vastly Undercounted". PRB. Retrieved 2021-05-31.
  11. ^ Rankin, Jennifer; Burgenin, Stephen; Willsher, Kim; Walker, Shaun (2020-04-24). "Is comparing Covid-19 death rates across Europe helpful?". The Guardian. Retrieved 2021-05-30.
  12. ^ Stancati, Margherita; Sylvers, Eric (2020-04-01). "Italy's Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported". Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved 2021-05-30.
  13. ^ "Completeness and coverage of death registration data". WHO. Archived from the original on October 22, 2006. Retrieved 2021-05-31.
  14. ^ a b Kevyah Cardoso (2021-02-22). "Measuring Africa's Data Gap: The cost of not counting the dead". BBC News. Retrieved 2021-05-31.
  15. ^ NB, Devikrishna; Besra, Bishwajeet; Mishra, Nand Lal (6 January 2021). "Birth, death registration improves across states: NFHS-5". Down To Earth. Retrieved 2021-05-28.
  16. ^ Johari, Aarefa (30 May 2020). "376 burials in 25 days: What explains the surging death rate in Ahmedabad's burial grounds?". Scroll.in. Retrieved 2021-05-28.